Token Launches · resolved market
Katana FDV above $150M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf3529c77cd4cac051cee02fcb798711a8be342dc26aa352d9edc8fb00d4bead
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,031 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 36c | 5,565$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.53 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked No | 64c | 5,264$3,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,912.41 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 39c | 3,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 61c | 2,948$1,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 61c | 2,891$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.27 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc821…6a7ebacked Yes | 48c | 2,621$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 59c | 2,427$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.63 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 66c | 2,388$1,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.74 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 31c | 2,378$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.96 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe25…8150backed Yes | 38c | 2,096$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.62 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…5e7fbacked Yes | 52c | 1,890$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.42 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 58c | 1,626$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.84 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 34c | 1,536$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.36 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4005…4cd5backed No | 54c | 1,098$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes | 37c | 1,094$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.75 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…ec01backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c77…8656backed No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Yes | 40c | 900$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 801.89$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.25 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 23c | 758.59$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.23 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…46e6backed No | 66c | 718.09$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.69 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 70c | 652.94$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.92 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 60c | 600$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…35e6backed Yes | 25c | 578.45$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 558.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…c962backed No | 70c | 503.06$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.14 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2098…c8aebacked No | 62c | 457.11$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.85 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…be58backed Yes | 44c | 450.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4abf…9285backed Yes | 23c | 436.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 71c | 414$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.38 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 402.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x677b…3513backed No | 57c | 358.39$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 68c | 356.34$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.49 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Yes | 42c | 342.83$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +219%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e5…dcc9backed No | 78c | 325.87$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed No | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked Yes | 42c | 307.89$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6152…d8f3backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf8…f5bbbacked No | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7450…b5acbacked No | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…747fbacked No | 55c | 291.47$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…85eebacked No | 78c | 287.71$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60f…f4b4backed No | 64c | 280$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 274$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7539…1186backed Yes | 38c | 265.14$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…2b0abacked Yes | 39c | 256.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…41d5backed Yes | 26c | 245$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…9bd0backed Yes | 23c | 214.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe402…4243backed Yes | 37c | 213.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 212.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed No | 57c | 210$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafb6…f6f7backed Yes | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3f…c3dbbacked Yes | 40c | 195.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 62c | 179.08$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…5786backed No | 50c | 156$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…3698backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c87…7a9abacked Yes | 38c | 147.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…a5e9backed No | 74c | 143.73$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 47c | 142.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f9…3386backed Yes | 39c | 136.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 8c | 135.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 66c | 132.94$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 37c | 130.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…97b0backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e7…6757backed No | 55c | 119.56$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005b…cb86backed Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 73c | 108.8$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…68b8backed Yes | 44c | 108.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 51c | 100.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…9dd6backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c28…9278backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…4572backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd55f…36ecbacked Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…f829backed Yes | 51c | 98.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 62c | 94.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 87.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…e79bbacked Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.34per pick | 41cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…d5cfbacked Yes | 36c | 77.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 29c | 76.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked Yes | 60c | 66.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 35c | 66.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked No | 64c | 66.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +344.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 64c | 65.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…58febacked No | 58c | 64.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda57…e628backed No | 78c | 61.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7781…ea23backed Yes | 43c | 59.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…a52cbacked Yes | 69c | 56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb312…6092backed Yes | 49c | 53.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…7ab4backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b05…8db1backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86db…67cebacked No | 78c | 48.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Katana FDV above $150M one day after launch?this page
- Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.