Token Launches · resolved market
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x514aa81f59f1bed623fc431f6f0e92b52be63b6c353d5a1fdfe7720a0d370c1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $371,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $371,629 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 246 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 63c | 22,175$14,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,062.06 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4005…4cd5backed No | 20c | 18,894$3,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,086.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed No | 36c | 17,558$6,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,160.93 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 38c | 13,487$5,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,370.57 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 21c | 13,242$2,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,473.74 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 20c | 10,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,999.98 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed No | 19c | 8,590$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,927.99 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 41c | 7,301$2,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,337.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 13c | 7,000$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,109.97 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed Yes | 75c | 6,867$5,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,140.01 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…09abbacked Yes | 71c | 6,752$4,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,803.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 40c | 6,668$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,018.1 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…7251backed Yes | 76c | 6,381$4,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,844.17 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 4c | 6,058$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.8 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 24c | 5,618$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,274.28 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 25c | 4,839$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,631.05 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 18c | 4,700$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,876 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a0…22eebacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +135.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd94f…4cf2backed No | 14c | 3,607$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,105.87 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 39c | 3,500$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…daddbacked Yes | 67c | 3,417$2,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,276.15 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5db1backed No | 27c | 3,145$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,305.54 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…ec01backed Yes | 74c | 2,969$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,193.51 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…e058backed No | 22c | 2,872$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,244.07 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 20c | 2,690$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,161.66 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…bf45backed No | 39c | 2,649$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 1c | 2,609$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b53…7657backed Yes | 70c | 2,543$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 24c | 2,500$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…c988backed Yes | 3c | 2,431$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…9863backed No | 29c | 2,202$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 18c | 2,187$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,787.13 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…6cddbacked No | 24c | 2,083$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 32cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe21d…5942backed No | 30c | 2,018$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 14c | 2,000$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…8686backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…85a0backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053e…00c1backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…02ddbacked Yes | 71c | 1,844$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.21 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23f4…c234backed No | 40c | 1,755$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.95 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f9…32b0backed Yes | 70c | 1,611$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 32c | 1,600$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.86 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 1,570$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.8 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 18c | 1,564$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.09 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…c869backed No | 64c | 1,556$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.17 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…6659backed No | 22c | 1,502$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 21c | 1,492$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.44 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…dd70backed No | 23c | 1,470$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.19 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…18ddbacked No | 17c | 1,447$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.79 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae2…8c70backed No | 17c | 1,421$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 19c | 1,416$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.03 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6b…fee6backed No | 28c | 1,407$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…5e7fbacked Yes | 70c | 1,401$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.43 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…e2bbbacked No | 39c | 1,400$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.39 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed No | 35c | 1,216$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.63 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No | 14c | 1,200$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 22c | 1,170$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.77 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 13c | 1,077$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.92 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 16c | 1,000$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.68 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 75c | 1,000$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.53 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d9…46e6backed No | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9e26backed Yes | 70c | 999.9$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.93 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 990.74$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.05 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked No | 14c | 973.05$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.82 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…4c5ebacked Yes | 62c | 922.25$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409e…ae4abacked No | 19c | 912.17$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 42c | 844.49$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.12 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 824.3$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.54 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…46e6backed No | 19c | 801$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.62 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x533c…4883backed No | 11c | 799.28$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…474ebacked No | 17c | 776.51$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 57c | 759.61$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.26 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked No | 66c | 759.14$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.14 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba7c…2a2abacked No | 40c | 750$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…b7b3backed No | 14c | 749.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…2093backed No | 14c | 719.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.19 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 647.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.4 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12f…c53abacked No | 78c | 638.16$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 28c | 635.9$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.86 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 70c | 632.12$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.54 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 34c | 603.27$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.87 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked No | 20c | 600$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.08 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…c9a9backed Yes | 75c | 600$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.5 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…df66backed Yes | 72c | 600$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 14c | 597.46$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5df2backed No | 13c | 594.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.03 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…fa82backed Yes | 76c | 588.03$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.27 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0f14backed No | 43c | 586.67$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 16c | 560$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 27c | 549.65$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.84 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 18c | 541.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.03 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 41c | 519.46$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.14 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…1697backed No | 20c | 510.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 28c | 508.77$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.16 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 11c | 500$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.99 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…e8bdbacked No | 15c | 499.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Katana FDV above $150M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.