Token Launches · resolved market
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6acddec2b32f9de0604043db568e6eef899d2be31aa85d82bcb3f9479a27b582
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,300 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 49c | 15,378$7,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,893.83 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 45c | 11,640$5,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,268.6 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 49c | 8,821$4,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,334.6 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,500 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…7a96backed No | 67c | 4,515$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.55 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed Yes | 11c | 4,346$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.9 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 75c | 3,718$2,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.01 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed No | 71c | 3,606$2,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.25 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed Yes | 21c | 3,531$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.95 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes | 25c | 3,297$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.11 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 20c | 2,977$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.02 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Yes | 28c | 2,963$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 67c | 2,867$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.11 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe03e…6e50backed Yes | 70c | 2,807$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 2,544$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fd…3ecfbacked Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61a…3d71backed Yes | 25c | 1,988$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,973$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.03 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de0…9483backed Yes | 70c | 1,860$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 50c | 1,700$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…8cd8backed Yes | 70c | 1,577$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.49 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1202…bc37backed Yes | 15c | 1,574$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,555$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888c…3856backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…d9e8backed Yes | 11c | 1,430$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.25 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 1,354$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.69 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed No | 63c | 1,308$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.39 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed Yes | 25c | 1,300$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.91 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…740bbacked No | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 34c | 999.98$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.99 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 951.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a4…3fb9backed Yes | 21c | 940.77$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9d…8661backed Yes | 71c | 900$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab44…9bc7backed Yes | 70c | 800$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 791.8$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.45 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0f14backed No | 80c | 790.43$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…526abacked Yes | 63c | 774.66$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.53 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 13c | 661.62$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 11c | 644.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 561.74$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.53 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 560$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 74c | 550$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 76c | 538.07$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.35 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad4…7c3fbacked No | 48c | 532.3$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +316.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 73c | 524.92$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.73 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…f4b2backed Yes | 18c | 510$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 22c | 509.43$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…d5f6backed No | 47c | 506.72$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 49c | 505$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.45 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes | 53c | 502.15$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.14 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed Yes | 32c | 474.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.27 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…ec01backed Yes | 19c | 452.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf827…3dcfbacked Yes | 20c | 451.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 23c | 450.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…3ae6backed Yes | 12c | 450$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…e8bdbacked No | 79c | 440$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 438.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…e15abacked Yes | 69c | 417.51$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…8eaabacked Yes | 4c | 401.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…d8bcbacked Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x654b…35e6backed Yes | 15c | 399.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde27…3d20backed Yes | 26c | 379.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…74d8backed No | 76c | 356.61$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.59 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 8c | 352.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98f9…3386backed Yes | 27c | 346.59$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ba…9255backed Yes | 21c | 346.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed No | 80c | 320$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…ec07backed Yes | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…177fbacked No | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…94d9backed Yes | 17c | 291.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…d520backed Yes | 10c | 285.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…3e40backed No | 80c | 269.73$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…0de9backed No | 79c | 256$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 71c | 253.63$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 246$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 47c | 240.23$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.39 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 12c | 229.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 216$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808f…87b2backed Yes | 57c | 208.24$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed No | 72c | 202.79$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…9dd6backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca25…c004backed No | 74c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 56c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…6c9ebacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…0d7dbacked Yes | 26c | 191.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…9b89backed Yes | 18c | 189.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e18…dd00backed Yes | 55c | 182.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bd…e58dbacked Yes | 25c | 181.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e5…dcc9backed Yes | 18c | 177.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked No | 48c | 170.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.12 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…d94abacked No | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…388abacked Yes | 18c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed No | 60c | 135.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7781…ea23backed Yes | 28c | 121.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $150M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.