Token Launches · resolved market
Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2463e1b34204685a64f27706b48b09bc97631ec5b8ee0403405fd7f4f1441efb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $255,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,207 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 1c | 29,334$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.81 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0398…e181backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked No | 1c | 15,000$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 1c | 14,170$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.02 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 1c | 13,033$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe606…f1dabacked No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 0c | 9,998$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,844$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b6…5db1backed No | 3c | 6,266$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.8 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 2c | 5,779$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.13 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 5,250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…d696backed No | 8c | 5,155$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.48 | 72 | 70.8%51 W · 21 L | +20.9wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +190%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 4c | 4,121$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.85 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 3,618$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x677b…3513backed No | 2c | 3,163$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 4c | 3,109$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.67 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…18ddbacked No | 2c | 3,082$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 3,057$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 1c | 3,041$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…d2cfbacked No | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409e…ae4abacked No | 2c | 2,948$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 6c | 2,670$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6247…dddabacked No | 1c | 2,543$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 2,062$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fed…dbd6backed No | 1c | 2,027$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed No | 1c | 1,789$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…d5f6backed No | 4c | 1,603$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…d43ebacked No | 1c | 1,503$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae2…8c70backed No | 3c | 1,476$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 3c | 1,397$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 2c | 1,351$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…c9a9backed No | 4c | 1,350$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 1c | 1,246$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…89c6backed No | 4c | 1,074$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 2c | 1,055$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…fcdfbacked No | 1c | 1,030$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 2c | 1,014$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked No | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa547…bf03backed No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked No | 3c | 934.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed No | 10c | 700$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 2c | 559.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 538.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 3c | 494.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 6c | 457.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fdd…8967backed No | 6c | 392.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…2ccbbacked No | 6c | 383.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 12c | 285$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdcd…7865backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…8c95backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $150M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.