Token Launches · resolved market
Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5aecd76a6bac63bac81f7c54e3085db5fb1b1764bed690dbcf6e1ea45ad4691b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,576 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,309$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed Yes | 3c | 5,933$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.66 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 75c | 5,631$4,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.19 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x012b…7c42backed Yes | 15c | 4,357$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,392$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…7774backed Yes | 7c | 2,379$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 3c | 1,801$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,581$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 10c | 1,310$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.11 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,094$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Yes | 9c | 1,085$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…0d7dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,022$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…ec07backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes | 8c | 900$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1202…bc37backed Yes | 8c | 692.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 60c | 662.61$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.93 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79e5…dcc9backed Yes | 7c | 596.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fd…3ecfbacked Yes | 10c | 507.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…8eaabacked Yes | 3c | 489.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 481.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 11c | 422.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…8cd8backed Yes | 21c | 420$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9d…8661backed Yes | 26c | 400$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad5…08e3backed Yes | 45c | 376.31$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 321.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 318.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 51c | 206.19$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e1…2600backed Yes | 15c | 163.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 50c | 115.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed Yes | 18c | 102$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +8.2wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…eccabacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…eee9backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $150M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.