Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa39a77208f3520d79b0ae386d46fb8e604da6153fe4b256e3b4590e447f3ac7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,992 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5710…c06abacked No | 2c | 3,678$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 17c | 2,630$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.96 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 14c | 2,190$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.03 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 56c | 1,824$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.73 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 12c | 1,772$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.47 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,741$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed No | 7c | 1,526$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 16c | 1,426$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.3 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 56c | 1,238$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.52 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 887.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…513ebacked No | 9c | 846$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2822…3f0cbacked No | 12c | 811.94$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 64c | 801.51$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.65 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 18c | 545.61$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 30c | 524.81$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.58 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eeb…c2e2backed Yes | 78c | 512.13$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 9c | 485$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 10c | 481.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…add4backed No | 5c | 473.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed No | 9c | 450$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed No | 28c | 389.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 347.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes | 78c | 343.33$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9a…f836backed No | 25c | 340.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e5…dcc9backed No | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 64c | 284.11$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.13 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed No | 14c | 263.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 81 | 35.8%29 W · 52 L | +13.6wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 40c | 256.25$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed No | 40c | 251.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…cf89backed Yes | 53c | 250.6$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.12 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 38c | 240$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 23c | 219.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5389…1e77backed No | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 9c | 210.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 40c | 198$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f2…bfcdbacked Yes | 78c | 197.48$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 12c | 172.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5a…d8f4backed Yes | 74c | 130.75$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 25c | 120.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 13c | 118.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 117.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 76c | 112.61$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 64c | 106$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…3b54backed Yes | 59c | 105.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…4b5dbacked Yes | 68c | 101.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 93.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 19c | 83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 19c | 82.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 64c | 81.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…0991backed No | 17c | 81.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…c768backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…935fbacked No | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 71c | 63.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 54c | 61.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebec…e1dbbacked No | 50c | 60.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2596…7803backed Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed No | 26c | 49.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…74cfbacked No | 31c | 46.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0704…3dfebacked No | 50c | 43.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 68c | 43.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 36c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…3c87backed No | 31c | 42.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 59c | 42.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…7d97backed No | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86b…0dc6backed No | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b26…6900backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…1a3abacked No | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb6…6f86backed No | 29c | 35.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e10…7247backed No | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d51dbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…2e6ebacked No | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Yes | 75c | 24.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b1…4a52backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…3ba8backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…086ebacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 7?this page
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 1?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 2?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 3?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 4?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 5?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.