Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda26f4dba3e89da7b8e84c2ed66166d479c5d97067855eb22395ca7b89dc8ec6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05c3…352ebacked No | 2c | 1,857$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked No | 2c | 1,663$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 1,407$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…6aa1backed No | 4c | 1,070$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 993.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 68c | 708.16$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddb4…3410backed No | 20c | 491.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…0c0fbacked No | 10c | 481.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 3c | 450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0128…55f6backed No | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 6c | 405.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 37c | 400$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.29 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…36c9backed No | 13c | 376.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 66c | 294.7$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b27…796ebacked No | 14c | 226.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…b2ffbacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 73c | 152.45$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 131.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 63c | 111$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bf…99d3backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 78c | 37.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…83f0backed Yes | 69c | 28.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 1?this page
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 2?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 3?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 4?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 5?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 6?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.