Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d85e6bf4804095db2fb3105424a77cee3d27be20f7bedff3b8ad472fc11e5b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,327 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed No | 5c | 8,636$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.12 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…72eebacked No | 36c | 6,722$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440.13 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…0a76backed No | 20c | 4,136$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 13c | 3,225$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.91 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2a…ffa2backed No | 33c | 3,155$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…5348backed Yes | 76c | 1,998$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.08 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 11c | 1,992$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.08 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 70c | 1,515$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.49 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,490$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,451$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 43c | 1,098$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.66 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…f6eebacked No | 3c | 532.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 19c | 525.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…7d19backed No | 4c | 518.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 9c | 510.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 510.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…9e90backed No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…87b9backed Yes | 61c | 464.94$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.99 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 7c | 438.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 347.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…3887backed No | 15c | 331.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 17c | 284.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 71c | 266.4$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5670…2b9cbacked Yes | 77c | 207.6$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…4b60backed Yes | 55c | 190.9$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 20c | 169.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 18c | 167.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 40c | 158.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 18c | 151.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 19c | 148.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b26…6900backed No | 17c | 147.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 31c | 147.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16a8…7d0cbacked No | 23c | 142.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 42c | 140.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed Yes | 69c | 125$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 19c | 116.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…e76cbacked No | 50c | 113.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…4b5dbacked Yes | 80c | 102.04$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b5…ef45backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked No | 32c | 94.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…e811backed No | 59c | 89.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 59c | 87.53$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed No | 13c | 86.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbce…f400backed Yes | 77c | 77.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 18c | 77.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 38c | 66.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…cf89backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 52c | 47.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2596…7803backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5691…c593backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed No | 70c | 36.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 62c | 35.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85e7…5e49backed No | 78c | 32.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 76c | 31.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 46c | 30.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d51dbacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc703…5979backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 50c | 24.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 4?this page
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 1?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 2?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 3?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 5?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 6?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.