Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5791a0f136a848d8d560adcd1dc315e30a6616caa29569ebb390115abe81757
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,625 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 14c | 1,479$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.59 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8df3backed No | 3c | 1,331$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…3d56backed No | 11c | 926.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5389…1e77backed No | 4c | 844.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2822…3f0cbacked No | 3c | 823.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 746.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5670…2b9cbacked Yes | 76c | 631.58$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.78 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41d…577cbacked No | 11c | 463.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 9c | 453.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 22c | 419.81$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 24c | 418.75$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed Yes | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…9e90backed No | 12c | 201.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…1848backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2a…7d19backed No | 10c | 180.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 153.33$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 18c | 138.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2596…7803backed Yes | 52c | 114.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…cf89backed Yes | 67c | 109.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 18c | 88.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…e811backed No | 50c | 59.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 6?this page
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 1?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 2?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 3?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 4?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 5?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.