Middle East · resolved market
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4e55f04f4b9d0f89835c5aaa72244c09e9444dbca346d7a9711491520cebfbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,102 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 11c | 5,379$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 14c | 999.98$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 26c | 689$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.64 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 75c | 655$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.3 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 8c | 579.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2596…7803backed Yes | 74c | 479.66$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 10c | 350$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 15c | 304.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…c61ebacked No | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 22c | 189.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 42c | 174.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 8c | 154.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 22c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…cf89backed Yes | 74c | 129$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf7…3afebacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…e811backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 5?this page
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 1?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 2?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 3?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 4?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 6?Yes won
- Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.