Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x515b15f2d8fb8a3af69e2dcb7283a3078914f3ee6429e8c8806017b39bef190b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $452,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $427,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $452,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 8c | 28,426$2,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,353.99 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe15d…694ebacked No | 4c | 18,841$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 3c | 16,108$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b72…7dbbbacked Yes | 66c | 14,296$9,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,912.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…fe92backed No | 4c | 13,168$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 8c | 12,935$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.46 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 4c | 12,500$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.14 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…25e8backed No | 6c | 12,453$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…7c32backed No | 23c | 10,536$2,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,411.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed No | 9c | 9,810$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 25c | 9,684$2,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,404.93 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 9,535$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 8c | 8,993$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.35 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 36c | 8,508$3,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,073.24 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb05…12f8backed No | 22c | 8,094$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.79 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +84%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf485…53ccbacked No | 8c | 7,775$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 6,638$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 79c | 6,546$5,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,347.8 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 73c | 6,484$4,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 28c | 6,124$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 2c | 6,123$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 79c | 5,006$3,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.23 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 26c | 4,584$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 1c | 3,612$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…6435backed No | 4c | 3,595$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed No | 4c | 3,286$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 45c | 3,200$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.23 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 7c | 2,800$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 33c | 2,662$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.52 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed No | 37c | 2,436$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.56 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 31c | 2,363$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 75c | 2,288$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.31 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 16c | 2,144$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.7 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 30c | 2,100$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.96 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14d1…a24ebacked Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked No | 13c | 1,900$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 53c | 1,886$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.42 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x107b…1bcabacked Yes | 69c | 1,809$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 48c | 1,800$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…a8e3backed No | 18c | 1,796$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,696$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 44c | 1,690$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.39 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e7…31a8backed No | 10c | 1,645$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 76c | 1,428$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.85 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed No | 12c | 1,400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 59c | 1,357$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.61 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…f9dbbacked No | 5c | 1,264$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.38 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f37…6dc5backed No | 21c | 1,214$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd3…8c6fbacked No | 3c | 1,189$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…030bbacked No | 5c | 1,066$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…8994backed No | 23c | 1,033$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5e…33bdbacked No | 5c | 1,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9273…2755backed No | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 30c | 899.6$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.88 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…8e1dbacked No | 22c | 895.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 12c | 855.64$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8182…7cf5backed Yes | 79c | 832.28$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.34 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…51b4backed No | 12c | 829.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 21c | 822.28$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.81 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 19c | 820$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…2332backed Yes | 50c | 793.7$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 30c | 720$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.23 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…3ac2backed No | 11c | 719.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b2…c5d3backed No | 35c | 700.17$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…0de7backed No | 7c | 602.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 36cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf47…4c2bbacked Yes | 50c | 591.16$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd6…2656backed Yes | 50c | 561.5$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…9cefbacked No | 17c | 542$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55dc…2250backed No | 18c | 541.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 55c | 540$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +158.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73e1…072cbacked No | 41c | 508.48$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 20c | 505.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…9b7abacked No | 25c | 501.15$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.38 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…6654backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 475.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 33c | 469.68$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.68 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 3c | 466.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 49c | 459.68$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 44c | 454.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed No | 27c | 448$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.05 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +51%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44c0…6867backed No | 31c | 447.79$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…159cbacked Yes | 56c | 447.05$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.05 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x719b…c995backed No | 5c | 422.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed No | 7c | 417.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…e601backed Yes | 64c | 413.74$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.46 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes | 73c | 403.11$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19be…f052backed Yes | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…3352backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 75c | 400$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f60…445fbacked Yes | 75c | 391.09$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…2a54backed No | 6c | 390.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 18c | 380.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 16c | 369.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 39c | 357$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.62 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e5…dcc9backed No | 30c | 355.35$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 37c | 346.33$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.08 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…f6abbacked No | 8c | 345.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed No | 33c | 340.97$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.03 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia recapture Sudzha by March 31?this page
- Will Russia recapture Sudzha by April 30?Yes won
- Will Russia recapture Sudzha by February 28?No won
- Will Russia recapture Sudzha by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.