Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c765c03fe72dcfa97c7b3c09711288b7560ea2b20d0f53abe529ede2792a62e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb05…12f8backed Yes | 5c | 15,643$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +84%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 3c | 4,022$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.86 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…bc6bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,900$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 6c | 3,862$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.07 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…08e5backed Yes | 3c | 3,471$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 3c | 2,844$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 5c | 2,758$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,211$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0359…616ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,049$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 2c | 2,035$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 2c | 1,809$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,424$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…525abacked Yes | 5c | 1,112$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…fc3abacked Yes | 5c | 1,078$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 3c | 1,078$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb174…d896backed Yes | 6c | 1,064$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,034$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c0…05b5backed Yes | 8c | 658.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 7c | 544.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b3…7345backed Yes | 3c | 543.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a6…b686backed Yes | 3c | 421.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 3c | 349.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 3c | 349.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…4f2bbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 303$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 265.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe812…9db5backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia recapture Sudzha by February 28?this page
- Will Russia recapture Sudzha by April 30?Yes won
- Will Russia recapture Sudzha by June 30?Yes won
- Will Russia recapture Sudzha by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.