Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87b7ea66b816a057a5d18f8f230ec016e8c9225a8c97a15e678c3de157305737
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 68c | 5,285$3,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.83 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 33c | 4,805$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.88 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 22c | 3,800$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.39 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…7c32backed No | 29c | 3,515$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 30c | 3,067$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.76 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…b193backed No | 27c | 3,000$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 4c | 2,339$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked No | 32c | 2,237$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 7c | 2,200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 63c | 2,085$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.45 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +158.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 68c | 2,030$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.48 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 74c | 1,640$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.41 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c0…6867backed No | 17c | 1,532$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 7c | 1,498$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 3c | 1,248$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0359…616ebacked Yes | 67c | 1,192$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 6c | 1,190$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 79c | 1,081$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.18 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x719b…c995backed No | 29c | 1,024$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 37c | 1,000$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.51 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ad…c4cebacked No | 36c | 904.31$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 40c | 787.69$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.09 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 69c | 741.4$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.14 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 699.28$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.12 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…7016backed No | 6c | 639.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 8c | 622.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked No | 3c | 502.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 20c | 501.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked Yes | 60c | 496.44$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.24 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…1036backed Yes | 79c | 460.17$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…d077backed Yes | 73c | 459.59$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.85 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…50c7backed Yes | 66c | 450$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 28c | 403.52$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.66 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879a…1427backed Yes | 72c | 396.62$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 35c | 339.86$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 33c | 301.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 290.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 72c | 251$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.26 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 22c | 217.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked No | 25c | 215$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d7…dbcabacked Yes | 61c | 213.21$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 54c | 211.57$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.32 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 35c | 203.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…a431backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…6435backed No | 12c | 171.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 29c | 166.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 47c | 149.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de5…43e0backed Yes | 61c | 130.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 18c | 98.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 74c | 93.48$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 34c | 80.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…e748backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…2d63backed No | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked No | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…3e7fbacked No | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…4815backed No | 30c | 71.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 69c | 71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9aa…bcacbacked No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4391…61d8backed Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d6…c54dbacked Yes | 72c | 55.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…4bebbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 50cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…3e95backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1354backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…67bcbacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa515…7c4bbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia recapture Sudzha by June 30?this page
- Will Russia recapture Sudzha by April 30?Yes won
- Will Russia recapture Sudzha by February 28?No won
- Will Russia recapture Sudzha by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.