Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia recapture Sudzha by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33acd15d84b5b0cb3125425fff9abb9f84260ad6cdd658e57230627c83ede60f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $302,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $278,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $302,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 55c | 28,940$15,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,954.26 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 16c | 14,089$2,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,251.17 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 41c | 11,929$4,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,049.16 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 6c | 11,838$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.18 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…7c32backed No | 48c | 9,840$4,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,766.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb05…12f8backed Yes | 53c | 9,290$4,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,349.5 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +84%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 47c | 6,075$2,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,882.23 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 38c | 6,041$2,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,752.15 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed No | 1c | 5,889$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 28c | 5,105$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,689.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +158.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 47c | 5,068$2,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,665.57 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b72…7dbbbacked Yes | 46c | 4,963$2,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,679.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 7c | 4,517$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.22 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 12c | 4,224$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.42 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 11c | 4,191$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.89 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 72c | 4,045$2,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,928.65 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 56c | 3,560$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.9 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 69c | 3,542$2,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,431.01 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 5c | 3,047$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.11 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 2,911$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 12c | 2,900$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 6c | 2,269$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.12 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,939$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 2c | 1,873$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 18c | 1,871$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.16 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked No | 2c | 1,800$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 77c | 1,722$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.46 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 54c | 1,601$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.01 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0359…616ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,506$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 72c | 1,459$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.96 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879a…1427backed Yes | 48c | 1,400$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.59 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…2332backed Yes | 67c | 1,339$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,334$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.96 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 34c | 1,281$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.14 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…1036backed Yes | 64c | 1,082$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.35 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x719b…c995backed No | 9c | 1,039$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked No | 66c | 1,018$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…8887backed Yes | 42c | 955.84$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 71c | 951.98$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.07 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 51c | 921.74$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.74 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069f…b749backed Yes | 28c | 846.41$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.42 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…6654backed Yes | 24c | 842.01$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.01 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc71…eb87backed No | 61c | 830.42$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…159cbacked Yes | 33c | 800.51$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.35 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb174…d896backed Yes | 30c | 776.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6979…2127backed Yes | 70c | 716.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 36c | 708.61$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 29c | 707.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.7 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 29c | 705.69$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.5 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 41c | 700$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 51c | 690.1$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.95 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 24c | 685.41$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.21 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 78c | 667.06$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.15 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6343…bf0abacked No | 77c | 650.15$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c0…6867backed No | 27c | 636.73$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 29c | 630.97$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 78c | 608.51$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.06 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 69c | 600$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…a638backed No | 65c | 588.23$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 584.28$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.04 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4391…61d8backed Yes | 40c | 527.44$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked No | 16c | 500$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed No | 39c | 500$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 15c | 470.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 33c | 469.21$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.67 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…70dcbacked Yes | 22c | 454.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.54 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 25c | 450$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…c966backed No | 67c | 450$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.5 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 53c | 445.37$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.06 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 74c | 422$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.23 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…bc6bbacked Yes | 33c | 400$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 28c | 390$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 75c | 361.5$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.76 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 25c | 356.51$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.52 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 77c | 312.06$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.77 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…bbc7backed Yes | 74c | 312$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…ced9backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked No | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 32c | 295$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.22 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…0bd0backed Yes | 61c | 277.35$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed Yes | 36c | 270$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50c0…e601backed Yes | 28c | 267.86$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.86 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e61…60a0backed No | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…f9dbbacked Yes | 52c | 247.48$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.68 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd33…f691backed Yes | 33c | 234.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 26c | 225.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.97 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…db4bbacked Yes | 31c | 214.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 25c | 212.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.44 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 38c | 210.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.53 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 66c | 208.46$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Yes | 29c | 206$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.26 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +51%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…43dcbacked Yes | 77c | 205.22$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 31c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa5…f21fbacked Yes | 51c | 196.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…cc96backed Yes | 52c | 185.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia recapture Sudzha by April 30?this page
- Will Russia recapture Sudzha by February 28?No won
- Will Russia recapture Sudzha by June 30?Yes won
- Will Russia recapture Sudzha by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.