TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9075…43dc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 61 out of 100; worst AI at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST3360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$435Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$434.75
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+61.5%+$74
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$17.72
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$98.65
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55.53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$330.91
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+31.8%+$98.87
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+37.5%+$99.94
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$9.15
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+28.4%+$109.24
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+39.4%+$55.53
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+35%+$70.03
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT+27.9%+$32.7
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$417Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+82.1%+$341.93
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+338.1%+$519.6
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+64.4%+$69.09
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$33.33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+71.3%+$142.6
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+41.9%+$41.15
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.61
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.57
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST1984.2%16 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+28.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+25%+$25
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+57.8%+$151.26
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+57.8%+$115.51
Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$12.2
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+47.7%+$33.1
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$69.87
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+51.9%+$90.57
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+50.4%+$155.04
US-China trade deal before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+77.2%+$77.19
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$34.09
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$61.29
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+36.8%+$102.58
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Taiwan before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$26.58
Will Trump impose tariffs on Taiwan in the first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will the U.S. military implement transgender ban? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+106.1%+$106.12
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$64.95
Trump declassifies JFK files in first week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+42.9%+$42.86
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strike on Syria by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$40.13
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+58.7%+$58.73
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$61.29
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$42.97
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$56.03
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+56.4%+$33.82
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+76.1%+$217.91
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$168.02
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$130.97
Israel military action on Yemen before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$150.58
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$102.43
Israel military action against Yemen before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+32%+$20.77
All 14 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+95.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.