AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3bcc2715d9cbae9e0683074cdacf67f111cca5827639f143347e74b9accf88d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $315,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $325,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 4,478$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 1c | 3,146$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 2,980$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed No | 7c | 2,678$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.73 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed No | 7c | 2,553$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.52 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 12c | 2,092$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.42 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 8c | 1,796$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.42 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 3c | 1,726$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 9c | 1,663$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.7 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…6a18backed No | 7c | 1,495$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…29bebacked No | 14c | 1,456$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb154…2bf9backed No | 7c | 1,357$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed No | 9c | 1,308$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.75 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…0259backed No | 10c | 1,027$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed No | 8c | 979.58$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 8c | 979.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…17e5backed No | 6c | 927.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…0f69backed No | 11c | 922.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5409…0dbdbacked No | 15c | 752.8$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 75c | 680.24$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…aa46backed No | 9c | 636.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +55%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ace…9850backed No | 7c | 575.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed No | 28c | 562$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 3c | 509.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +238.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…6e1fbacked No | 11c | 488.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d54…e9bebacked No | 7c | 487.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0988…4014backed No | 11c | 462.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…eec4backed No | 7c | 447.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…00b6backed No | 12c | 430.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…1df2backed No | 6c | 413.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4608…0d43backed No | 11c | 403.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed No | 3c | 365.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…43dcbacked No | 29c | 343.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 11c | 337.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…c034backed No | 9c | 329.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…4934backed No | 14c | 324.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf354…5c13backed No | 11c | 322.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2732…3085backed Yes | 70c | 299.6$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 6c | 295.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d9…8de4backed No | 9c | 264.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 28c | 261.34$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x556d…eb35backed Yes | 70c | 250.22$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddb…7c73backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked No | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 24c | 221.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3598…ad60backed No | 9c | 220.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…4b43backed Yes | 71c | 212.56$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…0e32backed No | 13c | 206.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dac…f3bfbacked No | 26c | 193.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…1fd0backed No | 13c | 189.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…922abacked No | 13c | 185.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b87…274cbacked No | 14c | 173.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked No | 13c | 164.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 152.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…f77dbacked No | 7c | 140.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 138$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 77c | 132.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…6527backed No | 12c | 125.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…7e7abacked No | 17c | 120.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 15c | 119.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec0…4b37backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4a…ba27backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c8…e402backed No | 24c | 86.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed No | 12c | 85.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3283…a5e0backed No | 15c | 73.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes | 74c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…e206backed Yes | 79c | 63.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 72c | 59.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4acf…eaf1backed No | 28c | 47.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3548…05ebbacked Yes | 76c | 43.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 26c | 41.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45ec…3652backed No | 28c | 40.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc8…1bfebacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…fd19backed Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.