Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3315de37bfb5e6565dec1452a914a9160afbe18512aa29a89abf1bfe9c263c7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $957,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $957,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $957,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 807 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 32c | 58,899$18,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,003.62 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 59c | 26,217$15,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,712.3 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 70c | 26,130$18,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,209.91 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 32c | 18,120$5,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,377.47 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…e410backed No | 49c | 17,030$8,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,395.39 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 57c | 15,878$9,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,124.03 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 67c | 15,867$10,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,691.19 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 43c | 14,634$6,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,237.98 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed No | 68c | 13,663$9,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,298.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 31c | 13,345$4,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,219.29 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 47c | 12,501$5,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,621.97 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…b03dbacked Yes | 33c | 12,472$4,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,350.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed Yes | 41c | 11,251$4,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,602.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 27c | 10,980$2,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,061.1 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 56c | 10,419$5,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,787.36 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a0…b876backed No | 68c | 10,090$6,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,831.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 68c | 8,833$6,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,025.08 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…1a67backed No | 67c | 8,669$5,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,840.33 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67ad…c4cebacked Yes | 38c | 8,295$3,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,182.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 25c | 8,001$1,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,961.9 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 29c | 7,893$2,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,639.45 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed No | 70c | 7,634$5,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,352.46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…5488backed No | 2c | 7,618$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 65c | 7,478$4,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,587.31 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked No | 65c | 7,465$4,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,836.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 34c | 7,368$2,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,486.69 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 7,333$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…4050backed Yes | 33c | 6,812$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,586.95 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 33c | 6,562$2,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,409.28 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed No | 74c | 6,525$4,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a46…34cfbacked No | 69c | 6,307$4,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,369.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed Yes | 32c | 6,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,079.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked Yes | 44c | 5,555$2,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,085.66 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 48c | 5,408$2,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,595.52 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 68c | 5,396$3,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,647.17 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 33c | 5,130$1,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,442.92 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 66c | 4,963$3,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,260.85 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed No | 69c | 4,764$3,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,269.74 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 4,720$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 50c | 4,597$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,306.6 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca23…f403backed No | 69c | 4,546$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…2045backed No | 57c | 4,398$2,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,512.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 53c | 4,240$2,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,237.12 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed No | 3c | 4,196$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -52%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…6d8bbacked No | 74c | 4,171$3,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,074.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2c…9294backed No | 60c | 4,161$2,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,492.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 45c | 4,079$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,256.46 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1846…aefebacked No | 66c | 4,052$2,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,670.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 26c | 4,050$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,996 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 42c | 3,922$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.82 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…ab03backed No | 11c | 3,900$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…5d62backed Yes | 38c | 3,796$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,368.72 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 47c | 3,651$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.94 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 28c | 3,639$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,603.38 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x432e…50f0backed No | 74c | 3,635$2,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,678.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 36c | 3,568$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,285.87 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…4cadbacked No | 52c | 3,546$1,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.61 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 63c | 3,465$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.19 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked Yes | 24c | 3,348$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,533.25 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…d884backed Yes | 23c | 3,319$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,543.42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes | 27c | 3,303$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,419.57 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 40c | 3,280$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,961.43 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 46c | 3,254$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.31 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…b93cbacked Yes | 39c | 3,041$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,867.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed No | 39c | 3,028$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.61 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53d6…b6e8backed No | 64c | 3,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 19c | 2,855$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,304.55 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 34c | 2,758$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,808.55 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18be…88a1backed No | 78c | 2,738$2,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,145 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc7…8cd7backed No | 71c | 2,623$1,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc441…fe4dbacked No | 70c | 2,547$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad68…2c6dbacked No | 80c | 2,528$2,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Yes | 76c | 2,491$1,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.99 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d14…f8bdbacked No | 54c | 2,487$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 1c | 2,471$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…1fa9backed No | 1c | 2,419$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 48c | 2,386$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.28 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…64e3backed No | 69c | 2,313$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,586.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 2,300$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.42 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 2,273$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.56 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd1…02b9backed No | 72c | 2,232$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,615.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a1…f485backed Yes | 33c | 2,214$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.71 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 47c | 2,200$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8029…bafcbacked No | 78c | 2,187$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…d44bbacked Yes | 38c | 2,185$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.73 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 64c | 2,175$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.08 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 2,137$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked Yes | 37c | 2,131$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.2 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 40c | 2,117$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.39 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…47ccbacked No | 53c | 2,093$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…aec1backed No | 2c | 2,043$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 52c | 2,002$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.08 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.99 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 49c | 1,993$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.37 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b76…76a2backed Yes | 26c | 1,979$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…fe67backed No | 58c | 1,936$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 2c | 1,932$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 29c | 1,929$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.4 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.