TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x55a0…b876

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
71
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 55 out of 100; worst AI at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kurds declare independence from Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$10.16
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+63.7%+$25.73
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.93
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.3
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+120.8%+$130.34
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+155.9%+$61.41
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$39.97
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+106.9%+$22.65
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.56
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$17.4
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.1
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+66.1%+$20.93
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$29.75
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$111
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+47.1%+$32
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+61.3%+$38
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$10.34
All 17 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+64.9%+$27.89
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.5
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.49
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.92
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26%+$8.84
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+39.3%+$32.67
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+53.7%+$78.28
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+57.8%+$25.61
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.01
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.94
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 68% and 70%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+30.5%+$5.85
Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+43.2%+$12.64
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+354.5%+$44.88
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$32
All 14 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jets vs. Blackhawksbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$10.5
Devils vs. Rangersbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Senators vs. Panthersbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.75
Senators vs. Rangersbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$18.5
All 4 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-55.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+119.8%+$28.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$22.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5)backed Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$33.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.