TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,385
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,539

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,385 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb028…8686backed Yes16c8,990$1,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,403.3923639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfed7…9b10backed Yes21c5,640$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.693330.3%10 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked No72c5,480$3,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.4532739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf70a…541dbacked Yes0c5,393$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes39c3,001$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.2913635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes52c2,926$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,521.5226041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes22c2,641$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58428528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,080$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.011,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c2,033$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.72119.5%20 W · 191 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes38c1,865$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.6428524.2%69 W · 216 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked No61c1,489$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.7812631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,306$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.882781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes14c1,067$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1713735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6506…a203backed Yes2c838.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7de…b802backed No44c800.15$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.0311836.4%43 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes42c675.49$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.1929735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes33c664.75$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.8310544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked Yes46c658$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.683748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No73c573.53$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.713337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes14c548.45$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4617540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes5c513.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.833517.1%6 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x116f…9210backed Yes35c509.35$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.3710123.8%24 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes37c502.66$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.0311825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2708040%32 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes16c486.84$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1513440.3%54 W · 80 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf53c…00acbacked Yes27c468$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.361963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked No73c468$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.361957.9%11 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+71.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d30…1a5ebacked Yes33c460$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.41533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d1d…7b71backed Yes3c399.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-61.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb18…2372backed No54c382$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.72955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+26%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes35c368.03$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9715149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed No63c350.95$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.0729423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc493…b8f3backed Yes35c345$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce4…5f17backed No53c318.29$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.092365.2%15 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+28.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes29c304.47$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.316040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x959e…0315backed No49c300$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.5580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick39cpaid+128.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No79c287.15$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.215549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3e…0959backed No54c276$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.961323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-65.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes32c256.9$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.59851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed No53c253.81$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.8815054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xf626…8a12backed Yes60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502552%13 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes20c225.06$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes36c209$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.716453.7%88 W · 76 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fec…728ebacked No52c200$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11036538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes23c169.33$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.510827.8%30 W · 78 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef00…82f7backed Yes26c143.85$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x917d…601abacked Yes45c124.44$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.385729.8%17 W · 40 L+0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes43c111.29$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.997241.7%30 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6555…dd7ebacked Yes39c109.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.91933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed No47c104.08$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.571346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3c…b4b8backed No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.51915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes21c99.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.621,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfcba…2398backed Yes40c96.2$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.95666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ea7…d0d3backed Yes18c84.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x555a…931abacked Yes50c80.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0373…ff0dbacked Yes54c75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.51540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes45c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.52030%6 W · 14 L-4.6wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-39.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x22c8…819bbacked Yes59c67.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes52c65.83$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0219133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2384…e4d5backed Yes44c65.64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.881637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes53c61.18$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4587033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed No80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124742.6%20 W · 27 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.926431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a70…cba6backed Yes45c57.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No49c57.43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2913851.4%71 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No64c55$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6516741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes27c51.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.076619.7%13 W · 53 L-14.5wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-65%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x4aab…cf43backed No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.52544%11 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf960…500fbacked Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2eb…c299backed No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x159e…050ebacked Yes28c48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.46630.3%20 W · 46 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes36c47.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.09540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1360…4509backed Yes31c47.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9855…ac9bbacked Yes43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-67.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes26c43.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2319240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a78…5db0backed Yes51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Yes46c35.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.392532%8 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bdf…98a3backed No45c34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes30c33.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.012245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+33%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No49c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.423658.3%21 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes39c27.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.72355.7%2 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5a3…880bbacked No59c27.58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.38450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55a0…b876backed Yes54c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26dc…e03abacked Yes61c24.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b22…4b73backed Yes53c24.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed Yes56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe433…db89backed Yes51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7f…8b84backed Yes60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7d…1c5bbacked Yes58c19.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.521361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.