TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,758
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,758 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xab18…467dbacked Yes2c12,711$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.383423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-42.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked Yes16c7,930$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269758%6 W · 69 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-86.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x383a…a920backed Yes41c5,701$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes32c4,908$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.8518746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1920…a04ebacked Yes3c4,656$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4412631%39 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes1c3,879$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.429423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes26c3,736$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.8226041.2%107 W · 153 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53a4…4447backed Yes6c3,033$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.9912451.6%64 W · 60 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ebc…4c7dbacked Yes9c3,008$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.411428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes5c3,000$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1567538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ef…35d6backed Yes7c2,535$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ad4…83b8backed Yes4c2,300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdec0…8336backed Yes12c2,268$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.442010%2 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes1c2,236$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.681214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes6c2,060$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.14166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-90.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c2,056$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.181,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes16c1,997$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.3213440.3%54 W · 80 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes7c1,908$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.162416.7%4 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes17c1,631$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.4329735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes25c1,620$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.1928528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked No74c1,600$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4191838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ab4…404abacked Yes4c1,539$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562611.5%3 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes38c1,505$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.8417540%70 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed Yes18c1,104$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.643831.6%12 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes11c1,067$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6413735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…5c87backed Yes12c950.06$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x116f…9210backed Yes32c890.18$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.5110123.8%24 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…d33bbacked Yes9c745.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c652.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.222781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Yes23c641.98$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.64742.6%20 W · 27 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ca0…32a7backed Yes22c635$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.01922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-66.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes21c580.83$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5126431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c562.38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.982013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019f…ca69backed Yes40c521.37$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf263…e9c1backed Yes39c512.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes11c500$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5710549.5%52 W · 53 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes5c498.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6911825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes9c472.32$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.631811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-49.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7604…cd66backed Yes7c468.08$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.181457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+30%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes19c445.91$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2448414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb427…08a9backed Yes47c429.04$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6371…fc91backed Yes48c419.45$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes3c385.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.121414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No27c348.19$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.699745.4%44 W · 53 L+22.0wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+88%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xc493…b8f3backed Yes5c345$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.02837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes20c337.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.611050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes4c337.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.412119.5%20 W · 191 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98fe…bc9ebacked Yes6c337$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.37425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x920b…0bd4backed Yes16c286.35$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed Yes8c270.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2212030%36 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7d7…deecbacked Yes6c264.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e7f…1bd6backed Yes10c205.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.751833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-49.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4a3…490fbacked Yes16c200.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.82532%8 W · 17 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd8…cca3backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd27b…3966backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.65619.6%11 W · 45 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-52.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6f…87f9backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.511421.9%25 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes48c198.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3211625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1360…4509backed Yes38c166.56$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.971315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-20.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d05…de5abacked Yes24c150.77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.44450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes13c149.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4510827.8%30 W · 78 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74d8…27e7backed Yes25c146.03$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes8c137.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.613836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes9c120.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.342412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbff…5830backed Yes9c120$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.06862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+60.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes10c119.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3220841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe6d…6babbacked Yes28c108.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba68…39d7backed Yes27c108.03$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7de…b802backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211836.4%43 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes30c97.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.142437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes11c91.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0319133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…e4abbacked Yes33c86.72$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-54.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes25c80.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe693…e18dbacked Yes49c75$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14b8…81a9backed Yes27c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59e4…eeb1backed Yes24c74.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes25c68.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4714337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0522…9591backed Yes27c61.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes35c61.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.83650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a78…5db0backed Yes33c60.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab64…a24abacked Yes42c59.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes24c57.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.651,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd26e…3fa5backed No65c56.66$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bb2…b9b6backed Yes35c56.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3165…6bc4backed Yes45c39.42$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.93425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-55.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Yes48c39.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1150…e701backed Yes35c32.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2640%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe977…700fbacked No63c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+184.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a92…8586backed No63c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.47per pick33cpaid+754.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x874d…c888backed No64c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.86152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x768e…6577backed No79c18.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…2c75backed No68c18.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.