TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9d05…de5a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
59
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Middle East, grading 71 out of 100 (+0.19 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 71 out of 100; worst AI at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1190.9%10 W · 1 L+6.9wins+0.62per pick29cpaid+226.5%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.66
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+318.2%+$77.09
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+119.1%+$12.57
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+258.2%+$43.25
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+291%+$129.92
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+368.1%+$43.25
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+231%+$280.03
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+269.9%+$149.45
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+273.2%+$285.19
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+241.2%+$26.3
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+221.4%+$88.5
All 11 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$72.57
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+130.1%+$57.46
Will Germany win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$19.51
Will the United States win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15.83
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+223.6%+$138.18
Will Italy win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+93.4%+$47.98
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25.75
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25.54
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$86.84
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+36%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Australian Open Men's: Hamad Medjedovic vs Alex de Minaurbacked Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+32.5%+$4.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$16.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$86.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Big Bash League: Hobart Hurricanes vs Melbourne Stars (Game Eliminator)backed Melbourne Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$24.98
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.