TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Italy win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$211,054
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$198,801

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,054 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes52c14,857$7,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,079.971258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No24c14,680$3,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,451.237133.8%24 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56da…fca2backed Yes69c13,060$8,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,097.122218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-73.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b34…294cbacked No1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed No3c9,240$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310293.4%1 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-92.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes18c9,092$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,466.652114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-57.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes33c7,000$2,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,673.982326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes56c5,822$3,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-40.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c7c…1439backed No0c4,455$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.82616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d3…9af1backed No45c3,931$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760.971250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No0c3,694$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.292448.2%20 W · 224 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No56c3,272$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,836.187627.6%21 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed No4c2,857$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No14c2,535$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.331330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed No8c2,412$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.46147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-88.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f38…f189backed Yes73c2,033$1,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.69650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes61c1,898$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.793737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes16c1,793$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,502.331225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No52c1,691$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.25516.4%9 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-70.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fee…850abacked Yes53c1,358$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.06742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea0…5adfbacked Yes17c1,349$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.352119%4 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-43.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3e…d8d0backed Yes23c1,329$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.3742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No7c1,322$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.76933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f07…2036backed Yes31c1,305$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.621233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x670e…0cd9backed No17c1,204$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Yes37c1,200$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+111.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fcb…08fbbacked Yes33c1,150$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.811060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No17c1,080$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.171330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes24c936.86$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.87244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-82.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f24…513ebacked Yes29c857.09$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.771747.1%8 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.21per pick26cpaid+49.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe577…6c42backed Yes77c853.58$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.06757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes12c801.42$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.818236.6%30 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No19c758.22$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1441070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes13c745$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.362927.6%8 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No47c701.53$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.792445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e65…808fbacked No3c663.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6def…0d85backed Yes34c590.17$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.17666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+37.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed Yes30c573.08$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.931330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes40c508.46$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+44.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes15c499.97$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.731631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b30…29a4backed Yes10c492.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+885.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9378…8672backed No54c461.56$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7754…e39abacked Yes46c461.56$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No24c461.01$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.145318.9%10 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes41c442.07$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.15714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-64.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0dc…e78abacked No56c426.85$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b02…30fdbacked Yes44c426.85$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x723e…6669backed No64c402.12$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaec1…2778backed Yes36c402.12$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+179.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes8c395.02$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.423616.7%6 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes14c364.79$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.921816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No52c350.61$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9850%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f80…2804backed Yes33c332.8$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.241353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x006d…06f8backed Yes36c300$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.91330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes42c298.99$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.71540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No28c290.32$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes28c282.61$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.68333%1 W · 32 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-89.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8044…ac75backed Yes36c280.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.06540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee65…1109backed Yes14c278.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+595.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No7c255$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.11630%0 W · 63 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ae…4325backed Yes16c250.04$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc67b…dc73backed Yes54c250$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.83650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecd7…e149backed No46c237.26$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.82250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes55c231.64$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.166137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8930…d367backed No61c227.77$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6278…d2a3backed Yes39c227.77$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5997…76cabacked Yes38c223.49$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.49540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes36c211$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f5…d9c7backed No13c200$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b3…0c0ebacked No8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb13…2de9backed No6c199.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked Yes17c198.82$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.841533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f68…756cbacked Yes30c182.52$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.151330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0262…a9d2backed Yes16c180.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.251717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes56c175.12$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.248535.3%30 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7293…0516backed No67c171.39$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x307e…1cffbacked Yes33c171.39$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+206.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07f9…d1b4backed Yes79c168.01$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf661…a08cbacked Yes63c159.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes27c155.67$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.061435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes10c147.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.54559.1%5 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-60.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed No75c147$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.72050%10 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes49c143.57$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.57540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee2…c260backed Yes35c139.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbb…3f66backed No10c138$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd8…5335backed Yes42c134.54$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.54862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ef…dee6backed Yes67c128.6$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe6f…4dc7backed Yes39c127.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bcf…04fcbacked Yes55c127.55$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No73c121.87$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.19933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd479…be37backed Yes17c119.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+152.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No76c109.88$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-44.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf86f…0292backed Yes14c105.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+622.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc27…abc1backed Yes55c100.41$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.73246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd15…4a07backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.32123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.83771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+35.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa17e…cfcdbacked Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.15757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58a8…a3c7backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.