Olympics · resolved market
Will Canada win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c10beec0dc5f01c6bfb39f7c7f7ae59a76ea2d2db4aa91d72e3edb578625d3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 4c | 13,864$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.71 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Yes | 3c | 6,226$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.38 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 2c | 4,116$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 83 | 9.6%8 W · 75 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…4a07backed Yes | 3c | 3,538$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 5c | 2,711$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.72 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 4c | 2,588$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a9…d092backed Yes | 10c | 2,500$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.21 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 13c | 2,500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,363$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,113$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,970$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea0…5adfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,712$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…04ecbacked Yes | 4c | 981.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 1c | 910.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked Yes | 5c | 773.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 697.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 3c | 644.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…42b6backed Yes | 3c | 621.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 410.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 14c | 299.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0689…192abacked Yes | 18c | 265.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 195.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 14c | 132.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 13c | 128$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Yes | 14c | 109.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…ca07backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Canada win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Austria win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will China win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will France win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Germany win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Japan win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Netherlands win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Norway win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Sweden win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Switzerland win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will the United States win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.