Olympics · resolved market
Will Sweden win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9a338fd0643bcaad189263100cd4b0866f91ce69713c60dd6a404b258d0960e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 7c | 4,616$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.93 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 4,528$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 7c | 4,000$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.33 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 2c | 3,861$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 12c | 3,251$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.82 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 0c | 2,408$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 3c | 1,877$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Yes | 3c | 1,677$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,647$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed Yes | 1c | 1,523$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,090$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 6c | 1,011$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,002$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 6c | 999.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea0…5adfbacked Yes | 3c | 898$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 662.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 589.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked Yes | 5c | 582.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 538.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 471.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 5c | 408.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 7c | 385.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 9c | 299.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 272.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -89.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…6df8backed Yes | 7c | 245.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 6c | 197.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 7c | 148.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes | 14c | 144.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sweden win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Austria win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Canada win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will China win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will France win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Germany win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Japan win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Netherlands win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Norway win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Switzerland win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will the United States win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.