Olympics · resolved market
Will Netherlands win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fca720a2a188051166537393c318a2828266876a005eba4d928639619511be7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $210,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 1c | 19,479$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.96 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 5c | 16,976$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.2 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 2c | 16,816$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.41 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 2c | 13,354$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 5c | 12,887$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.55 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 1c | 6,723$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 83 | 9.6%8 W · 75 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked Yes | 0c | 5,226$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5f…5ef0backed Yes | 0c | 4,583$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 0c | 4,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 4,431$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12a8…90ddbacked Yes | 3c | 4,408$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d1…66cfbacked Yes | 3c | 4,257$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x838b…a603backed Yes | 0c | 3,837$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea0…5adfbacked Yes | 6c | 3,512$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.03 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed Yes | 3c | 3,503$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82b3…0c0ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,374$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 3,330$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.15 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 2c | 2,864$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…5c29backed Yes | 1c | 2,818$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 3c | 2,435$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 21c | 1,916$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.65 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,891$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 1,761$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7038…6647backed Yes | 1c | 1,524$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ff…59d3backed Yes | 1c | 1,446$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,262$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,191$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…d8d0backed Yes | 8c | 1,063$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…f0d0backed Yes | 10c | 1,008$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…045abacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 3c | 980.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 912.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…64b2backed Yes | 2c | 853.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 2c | 840.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed Yes | 18c | 744.42$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…8a3fbacked Yes | 3c | 741.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 725.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 709.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 574.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…8135backed Yes | 5c | 536.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Yes | 6c | 399.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…6b73backed Yes | 3c | 369.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 12c | 333.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 328.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…538abacked Yes | 8c | 319.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 4c | 280$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 22c | 228.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 10c | 200.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb66…a175backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 170.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…1005backed Yes | 21c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa236…b91cbacked Yes | 11c | 134.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 26c | 133.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62c…b86cbacked Yes | 16c | 125.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netherlands win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Austria win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Canada win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will China win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will France win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Germany win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Japan win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Norway win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Sweden win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Switzerland win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will the United States win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.