TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Germany win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$166,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,421

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,084 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbad2…5296backed Yes5c23,806$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.217627.6%21 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes40c19,380$7,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,655.811258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked No59c12,502$7,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,071.91225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes18c12,120$2,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,217.655516.4%9 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-70.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes2c5,392$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.48839.6%8 W · 75 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Yes44c4,157$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,833.261573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+44.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes21c4,102$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.821816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae21…1240backed Yes13c3,919$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4cf…3e8cbacked Yes5c3,320$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-39.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes6c3,010$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.0380%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c2,560$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.96442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-75.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Yes30c2,478$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.77944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes4c2,277$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.092114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-57.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,961$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.15630%0 W · 63 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No76c1,313$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.61070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked No70c1,212$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.881822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No58c1,100$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.777133.8%24 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56d4…9c57backed Yes33c1,088$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-45.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b2…1a2dbacked Yes3c1,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-59.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes3c987$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.72714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-64.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c976.55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd5…6428backed Yes45c948.14$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.81040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes29c921.66$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.153616.7%6 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c762.45$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.482448.2%20 W · 224 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f68…756cbacked Yes8c752.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.451330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea0…5adfbacked Yes42c740$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.352119%4 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-43.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No70c732.51$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.765151%26 W · 25 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes34c729.37$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.46123%14 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fcb…08fbbacked Yes43c704.43$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.691060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed Yes38c699.4$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89c6…7961backed Yes3c690.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.02100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1abc…2093backed Yes2c672.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No74c655.19$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.632445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes24c645.93$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.94559.1%5 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-60.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes2c607.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6270%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b8…04ecbacked Yes6c574.46$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c534.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.69180%0 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56da…fca2backed Yes23c525.27$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.522218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-73.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x338b…8a3fbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes37c499.97$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-49.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c455.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f24…513ebacked Yes29c405.59$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.391747.1%8 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.21per pick26cpaid+49.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes30c403.24$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.694515.6%7 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes23c390.99$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.03650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc3b5…b7acbacked Yes5c370.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed Yes21c355.48$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.31330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3e…d8d0backed No63c319.39$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.39742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes3c315.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.03100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No71c284.82$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.761145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked Yes25c282.52$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.851330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes32c279.72$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.835318.9%10 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc668…4f06backed Yes5c257$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.85450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed No64c250.25$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.22050%10 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f80…2804backed Yes26c194.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f8…7805backed Yes44c181.05$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.42475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c76…06acbacked Yes18c180$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes37c179.52$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid+17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed No57c175$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71f6…e115backed Yes7c173.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-53.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed Yes39c166$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f47…cf58backed Yes29c156.38$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15e9…6df8backed Yes29c152.72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8150%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes46c141.3$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed81…20f7backed Yes37c118$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd250…c9babacked Yes37c118$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b15…8c8fbacked Yes37c115$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd639…03a6backed Yes37c113$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked No70c112.28$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.523737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9484…773cbacked Yes37c107$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No77c103.87$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick60cpaid-44.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No62c103.13$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.942846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8799…a89fbacked Yes37c103$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7793…fb0fbacked Yes44c102.84$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x039d…7314backed Yes37c101$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6496…8846backed Yes36c100.54$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-58.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+32.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfcac…6a79backed Yes37c98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e7…b847backed Yes37c98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff46…a3afbacked Yes37c97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…1b15backed Yes37c97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfe…6ad4backed No55c90$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe980…57c9backed Yes37c87.11$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.23450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked No73c84.66$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.486137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa05c…aa9bbacked Yes24c83.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d05…de5abacked Yes24c81.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes29c80.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf05f…8ecbbacked Yes29c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe098…bbc0backed Yes37c78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4169…98e9backed No79c77.66$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.551553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes26c75.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202119%4 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-67.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ba…9918backed No63c70$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5f…aa02backed Yes29c69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3d…c4abbacked No63c68$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd2b…8116backed No63c67$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e30…76e9backed No63c66$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb5…6ebcbacked No63c65$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46d8…654cbacked No63c65$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x98a2…0633backed No63c65$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.