Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7b4de3e0320e86b89e92893a477da097b6e5dfa2b5c54cbc47f2791e5d2702e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $983,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $955,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $983,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 322 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked No | 69c | 46,312$32,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,214.39 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked No | 65c | 44,693$28,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,697.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…3febbacked Yes | 2c | 40,835$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 35,554$18,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,874.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 32c | 28,490$9,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,205.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 21c | 24,503$5,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,108.84 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 17,761$4,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,602.9 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fa…3248backed Yes | 2c | 16,847$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 44c | 16,715$7,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,273.87 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes | 29c | 16,660$4,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,842.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed No | 54c | 15,385$8,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,138.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 15,208$11,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,066.09 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 37c | 13,797$5,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,067.23 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 68c | 12,511$8,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,991.05 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 11,212$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.89 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 69c | 11,000$7,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,455.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 70c | 10,000$7,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,985.79 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…6ca1backed No | 67c | 9,717$6,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,249.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…eefabacked No | 67c | 9,618$6,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,205.26 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked Yes | 24c | 9,586$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 29c | 9,441$2,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,706.42 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…e043backed Yes | 3c | 8,994$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Yes | 30c | 8,016$2,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,431.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed Yes | 18c | 7,347$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.28 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Yes | 34c | 6,876$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,318.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 23c | 6,735$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.85 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 48c | 6,587$3,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,413.21 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 20c | 6,273$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 31c | 6,200$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 69c | 6,070$4,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.53 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 35c | 5,792$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes | 29c | 5,435$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.29 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…644ebacked Yes | 36c | 5,405$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,928.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 14c | 5,111$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.09 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…a750backed Yes | 2c | 4,800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 60c | 4,748$2,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,903.99 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 25c | 4,304$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.01 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +176.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 26c | 4,211$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.66 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 31c | 4,077$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.58 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…8cdabacked Yes | 3c | 3,930$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 39c | 3,845$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.39 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…7461backed Yes | 1c | 3,675$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 50c | 3,665$1,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,844.74 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 30c | 3,496$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.97 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 37c | 3,341$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.2 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f2…d8b1backed Yes | 2c | 3,209$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13c…43dbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,172$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked No | 71c | 3,000$2,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…5218backed Yes | 24c | 2,914$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed No | 48c | 2,852$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.3 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 51c | 2,775$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.63 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 24c | 2,592$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 79c | 2,537$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.71 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 10c | 2,404$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,163.45 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 31c | 2,386$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.08 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 15c | 2,306$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.59 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 64c | 2,213$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.54 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…335abacked Yes | 2c | 2,112$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c1…a397backed No | 76c | 2,069$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa001…cb11backed No | 71c | 2,039$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,000$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.69 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 25c | 1,968$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.86 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed No | 64c | 1,773$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 76c | 1,697$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.69 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 31c | 1,675$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.51 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 14c | 1,673$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.33 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,610$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…1cf9backed No | 3c | 1,607$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 6cpaid | +798.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,602$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 73c | 1,600$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 30c | 1,564$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.86 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 1c | 1,489$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f9…a3c5backed Yes | 2c | 1,417$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 1,402$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.33 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed No | 72c | 1,402$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,400$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.8 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd31…8004backed Yes | 25c | 1,400$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 55c | 1,285$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.99 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b01…b6cebacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 4c | 1,250$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.5 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…4c08backed Yes | 33c | 1,229$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 68c | 1,221$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.07 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…fe0dbacked Yes | 66c | 1,200$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…8912backed Yes | 2c | 1,198$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…0c7fbacked No | 72c | 1,163$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…8ab0backed Yes | 7c | 1,152$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed No | 73c | 1,125$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 17c | 1,100$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 7c | 1,066$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,023$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 32c | 1,004$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.2 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…5ae4backed No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,422.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…76bbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8a…f9bdbacked No | 72c | 999.67$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 944.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 23c | 916.02$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.42 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 2c | 900.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 17c | 900$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?this page
- Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.