Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c5836d863905b016a4b3f87592c51ae96bc103b91d6cc3114b09b4179a5c828
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 12,218$2,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072.73 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 25c | 10,726$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,056.12 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed No | 76c | 8,150$6,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,952.86 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +198.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 26c | 8,100$2,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,010 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 17c | 7,709$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.6 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 7,509$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.16 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 6c | 6,171$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.46 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 70c | 4,861$3,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,403.68 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 31c | 4,522$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.03 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b7…e81cbacked Yes | 75c | 4,093$3,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,068.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…eefabacked Yes | 68c | 3,543$2,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,418.12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes | 75c | 3,268$2,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,442.86 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 5c | 3,004$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.2 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 48c | 2,838$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.65 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 1c | 2,456$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,267$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 41c | 2,244$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.65 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes | 21c | 2,170$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.98 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x917c…66f2backed No | 51c | 1,957$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 36c | 1,952$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.91 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 7c | 1,532$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb0…12d7backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,477$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.85 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,421$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 59c | 1,314$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.96 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 46c | 1,146$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.03 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 1,084$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.37 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed No | 28c | 1,036$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.96 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.54 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed Yes | 66c | 999.99$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 13c | 999.66$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.54 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes | 74c | 991.14$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 3c | 979.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 34c | 941.45$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.2 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99c9backed Yes | 45c | 925.74$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 10c | 900$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 44c | 831.27$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.73 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…04ecbacked Yes | 26c | 800$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 66c | 800$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 48c | 784.78$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.11 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 60c | 733.35$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 4c | 699.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 8c | 680$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.6 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 79c | 652.06$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.34 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…9e90backed Yes | 6c | 649.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 622$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c1…c7a9backed Yes | 52c | 620$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f0…6362backed No | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 23c | 567.79$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.06 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 74c | 520$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 35c | 500$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.29 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 23c | 499.8$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed Yes | 49c | 496$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 492.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 11c | 461.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.17 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…fe06backed Yes | 41c | 457.69$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.65 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce4…57e1backed No | 80c | 450$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8fbebacked No | 80c | 450$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…edfabacked No | 35c | 425$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 40c | 419.28$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.43 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…4bb1backed No | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…b2b6backed No | 76c | 404.94$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.54 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…06a2backed Yes | 45c | 384.34$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.78 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…3e93backed No | 12c | 375.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 25cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 57c | 366.16$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.08 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 18c | 351$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed No | 74c | 339.69$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…eb4fbacked No | 56c | 332.41$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 329.81$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.95 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 44c | 326.95$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.36 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 47c | 325.02$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.76 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked Yes | 48c | 313.86$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 27c | 310.27$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…f29dbacked No | 8c | 300$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +959.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 72c | 299.01$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -8.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 8c | 297.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.73 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 43c | 289.15$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…c04bbacked No | 43c | 286$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…aa36backed Yes | 72c | 279.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked No | 35c | 274.76$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.63 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 43c | 262.61$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked No | 11c | 262.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.66 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed Yes | 22c | 250$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed No | 8c | 248.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…45d2backed Yes | 68c | 245.7$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c2…ab5cbacked No | 53c | 242.7$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed Yes | 17c | 241.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1c…fb66backed No | 71c | 235.32$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…d4cebacked Yes | 33c | 228$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed Yes | 75c | 220.79$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…0325backed No | 16c | 218.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +254.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…d9bfbacked No | 75c | 217$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 38c | 202$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?this page
- Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.