Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00f852ee52d101ff475c06253662cc9e6adc65ddb75c66d7bd041261c985843d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe105…9cb3backed Yes | 5c | 21,562$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +258.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 1c | 1,497$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,283$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 1,067$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 2c | 914.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 6c | 838.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 5c | 783.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6785…22e8backed Yes | 3c | 731$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 722.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 625.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 573.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 3c | 467.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 7c | 294.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 180.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f1…6395backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +881.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 74c | 135.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf992…ebb5backed Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 126.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83bc…78fbbacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c9…99a4backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d0…1f8fbacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 21c | 72.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more?this page
- Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.