Us Politics · resolved market
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd1ff280fa279d9b8e9017e91c7db6a5e3f8933deef4c1cb595d169dbc61f0ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $142,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe105…9cb3backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +258.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…edfabacked No | 79c | 8,371$6,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 7,904$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.61 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…ff77backed Yes | 17c | 6,318$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.47 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 5,128$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.37 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd404…bfa0backed No | 73c | 2,608$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 39c | 2,418$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.85 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,072$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.1 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 62c | 1,869$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 52c | 1,855$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 14c | 1,670$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.23 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 25c | 1,544$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.34 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 17c | 1,452$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.47 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 1c | 1,430$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd553…6af5backed No | 38c | 1,316$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.79 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c6…1434backed Yes | 36c | 1,307$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +271%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,303$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 25c | 1,274$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.08 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…eefabacked Yes | 24c | 1,271$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.31 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…c640backed Yes | 68c | 1,200$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 21c | 1,052$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes | 40c | 1,003$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.39 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…4bb1backed No | 71c | 902.05$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99c9backed Yes | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 11c | 750.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…7277backed Yes | 69c | 720.52$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -8.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 510.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 504.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 45c | 500.4$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.06 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf218…28a6backed No | 38c | 495.26$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 41c | 470$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 4c | 462.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…fe0dbacked Yes | 56c | 447$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.64 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6785…22e8backed Yes | 12c | 425.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 16c | 400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…8390backed Yes | 70c | 386.17$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes | 26c | 385.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 43c | 382.93$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.58 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 358.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 11c | 348.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85fb…342bbacked No | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 322.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 56c | 308.6$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.1 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 38c | 289.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 63c | 284.12$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 273.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 42c | 236.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 11c | 220$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked Yes | 37c | 197.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 188.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 45c | 175$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa601…cad0backed Yes | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47c…77f4backed Yes | 63c | 158.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…0325backed No | 32c | 153.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +254.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…8c18backed No | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 38c | 149.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed No | 31c | 136.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234d…e8e1backed Yes | 15c | 136.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 24c | 127.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Yes | 63c | 122.22$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 28c | 120.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe160…f12fbacked No | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfebb…fdc4backed No | 68c | 103.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 101$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked Yes | 21c | 98.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 21c | 97.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -9.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x714e…beeebacked Yes | 15c | 93.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d88…1a05backed No | 47c | 87.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4394…3055backed No | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…4502backed No | 79c | 75.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…06a2backed Yes | 32c | 74.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…37edbacked Yes | 27c | 73.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…83cbbacked No | 69c | 68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 65c | 66.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…ff0dbacked Yes | 27c | 44.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc36…4642backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed No | 38c | 37.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…d4cebacked No | 39c | 32.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd501…3d0abacked Yes | 49c | 25.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 62c | 19.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 55c | 18.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 76c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.4wins | +0.42per pick | 51cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?this page
- Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
- Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.