Us Politics · resolved market

Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfe48895964bc585256e0bb2f76787f85f941c086280dc6c92b6bc559b6731f6

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $170,707
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $162,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,707 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe105…9cb3backed Yes	3c	24,427$752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$751.94	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	5cpaid	+258.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes	7c	10,946$754 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$753.83	109	50.5%55 W · 54 L	+12.8wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa0de…fc0dbacked Yes	1c	8,017$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.39	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	8c	6,470$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.21	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	4c	6,112$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.48	333	13.2%44 W · 289 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes	12c	5,498$677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$677.22	70	51.4%36 W · 34 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	1c	5,200$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	61	0%0 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x712f…65cfbacked Yes	2c	5,061$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c6…1434backed Yes	16c	3,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+271%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	6c	2,807$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.37	85	36.5%31 W · 54 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	2,474$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.87	134	3.7%5 W · 129 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	6c	2,460$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.18	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes	6c	2,400$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.45	88	23.9%21 W · 67 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	17cpaid	+51.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe899…0899backed Yes	8c	2,262$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.96	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+127.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed Yes	5c	2,046$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.3	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes	1c	1,999$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6785…22e8backed Yes	4c	1,520$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.62	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2a…06a2backed Yes	4c	1,282$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.09	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf06d…ff77backed Yes	10c	1,268$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.48	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed Yes	9c	1,100$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc932…7277backed Yes	32c	1,048$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.84	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,031$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.79	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.9	76	5.3%4 W · 72 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes	12c	967.4$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes	6c	712.07$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.72	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-4.3wins	-0.21per pick	31cpaid	-85.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes	7c	535.76$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.17	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+61.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	7c	530.14$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.68	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+75.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	504.88$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.91	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2008…7c40backed Yes	15c	417.04$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.53	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd47c…77f4backed Yes	25c	400$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes	7c	394.48$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.56	37	2.7%1 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd399…d13ebacked Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	+63.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d1…86abbacked Yes	18c	278$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.04	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	10c	270$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	110	10%11 W · 99 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-32%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc529…4628backed Yes	21c	261.9$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.29per pick	49cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes	4c	252.77$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-84.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3f1…6395backed Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.26per pick	8cpaid	+881.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes	15c	249.57$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.87	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes	9c	242.67$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.28	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-61%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes	5c	212.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.61	126	31.7%40 W · 86 L	-8.7wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked Yes	9c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d98…f3debacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b3…fe06backed Yes	6c	194.68$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-71.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes	21c	146.1$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	68	33.8%23 W · 45 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd501…3d0abacked Yes	44c	140$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed Yes	20c	135.2$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.45	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	+102.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No	63c	100$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37	556	18.5%103 W · 453 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b85…2944backed No	76c	100$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+2.6wins	+0.12per pick	40cpaid	+56.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.86	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf40e…9addbacked Yes	16c	91.2$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No	73c	49$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.23	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc932…e6a5backed No	59c	40$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.4	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	72cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No	80c	20.04$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.05	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?this page
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event