Us Politics · resolved market

Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x584f6f14b2ec436b1a35116fef03c88bb547837025402027627faddf6d47a88e

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $151,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $148,924

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,218 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5a21…9318backed No	66c	17,387$11,528 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,858.67	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.15per pick	47cpaid	+35%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	29c	11,467$3,326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,326.24	184	25%46 W · 138 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes	13c	8,912$1,149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,149.44	126	30.2%38 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+105.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes	34c	8,252$2,804 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,803.94	109	50.5%55 W · 54 L	+12.8wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed No	78c	4,614$3,583 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,030.28	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	74c	4,531$3,331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,199.79	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed Yes	29c	3,323$958 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$958	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes	25c	2,820$707 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$706.88	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	8c	2,636$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.68	333	13.2%44 W · 289 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No	10c	2,202$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,984.02	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+7.5wins	+0.26per pick	40cpaid	+210.2%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x2cf1…4c08backed No	67c	2,159$1,440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$718.8	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	60cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes	31c	2,070$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.89	176	33%58 W · 118 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce4…36a6backed No	10c	1,919$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,726.29	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+102.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed No	68c	1,874$1,275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$599.34	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes	32c	1,600$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510.2	412	38.8%160 W · 252 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes	29c	1,574$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.52	113	36.3%41 W · 72 L	-8.5wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	29c	1,500$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.44	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	4c	1,454$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.69	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	2c	1,350$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	110	10%11 W · 99 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-32%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed No	70c	1,346$937 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$409.48	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.15per pick	40cpaid	+75.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	1,297$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.27	134	3.7%5 W · 129 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7387…0d38backed Yes	1c	1,284$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed No	70c	1,249$875 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$373.86	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+2.3wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+198.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	13c	1,071$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.9	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcac9…200bbacked No	67c	1,009$680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$328.69	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf87b…76bbbacked Yes	18c	1,000$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked Yes	2c	992.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9dd…9a89backed Yes	2c	914.12$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Yes	2c	909.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x698a…fe0dbacked Yes	11c	899.97$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.7	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.8wins	-0.29per pick	52cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	14c	860.54$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.53	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes	18c	824.03$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.06	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.9wins	-0.24per pick	41cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed No	3c	769.69$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$744.69	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.23per pick	6cpaid	+798.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes	27c	727.49$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.82	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-4.5wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	3c	705.24$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.42	53	22.6%12 W · 41 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No	71c	600$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No	71c	600$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-4.6wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes	28c	581.56$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	+16%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	17c	574.7$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.55	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x520b…100abacked No	59c	502.63$295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.07	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x314c…69ddbacked No	67c	446.61$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.61	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+30%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9676…4374backed No	70c	443.29$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.48	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0978…3137backed Yes	26c	430$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.25	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No	68c	390$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.81	144	60.4%87 W · 57 L	+16.5wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+24%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No	77c	388.48$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.48	103	24.3%25 W · 78 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	23c	366.24$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.51	94	3.2%3 W · 91 L	-8.3wins	-0.09per pick	12cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe70…eefabacked No	76c	309.75$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.66	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked Yes	13c	301.75$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe3d…4dc6backed No	70c	300$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	+3.3wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes	61c	280.46$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.49	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	+4.2wins	+0.10per pick	21cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4712…b584backed Yes	27c	266.47$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes	36c	250$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.22	235	43.8%103 W · 132 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b13…f125backed Yes	13c	222.8$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.63	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.19per pick	39cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0e…4838backed No	34c	199.99$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.6	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91ad…a5cabacked No	69c	198.44$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.17	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No	72c	197.54$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.54	80	42.5%34 W · 46 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes	31c	196.21$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.22	131	38.9%51 W · 80 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	23c	184.77$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.24	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab20…d9e2backed Yes	60c	183.41$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.69	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	14c	179.66$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.65	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	33c	168.9$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.02	318	40.3%128 W · 190 L	-9.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-26%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7bb…b578backed Yes	20c	161.07$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.68	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	15c	153$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.31	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	+11.0wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes	28c	153$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.13	62	30.6%19 W · 43 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6785…22e8backed Yes	11c	150$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.09	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa901…d418backed No	70c	140$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.3	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.8wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf47d…ee41backed Yes	32c	139.58$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.21	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x391f…b017backed No	74c	136$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.34	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb295…4ee4backed No	72c	125.25$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.31	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.19per pick	54cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	9c	125$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed No	68c	118.1$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.37	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	61c	115.01$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.47	567	33.2%188 W · 379 L	-40.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No	45c	110.99$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.15	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb2d…1dc7backed Yes	14c	107$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.22	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa095…6040backed No	22c	100$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+2.6wins	+0.19per pick	17cpaid	+125.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked No	69c	100$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c08…1ff6backed Yes	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecd1…2b46backed Yes	25c	93.68$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.79	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb21…e043backed Yes	33c	91.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7a9…5976backed Yes	33c	85.88$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.3	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3415…2a8cbacked Yes	34c	79.44$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.01	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes	31c	79.4$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No	63c	76.55$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.51	240	35.4%85 W · 155 L	-12.7wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd60f…b6c4backed Yes	20c	64.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.02	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf96c…9014backed No	71c	60.39$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.52	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8af…11f4backed No	67c	60$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.09	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+44.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes	33c	57.45$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-2.3wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-48%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked No	72c	56.99$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.85	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked No	74c	56.7$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.67	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee57…b2b6backed No	71c	51$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.92	7	100%7 W · 0 L	+2.0wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+42%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f1e…5a2abacked Yes	33c	50.35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.59	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf215…fa4cbacked Yes	33c	46.03$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes	28c	41.46$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	69	30.4%21 W · 48 L	-6.9wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes	33c	39.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.28	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x830e…c870backed Yes	35c	39.97$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.17	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x37c7…3e93backed No	66c	39.96$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.45	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+3.2wins	+0.29per pick	25cpaid	+153.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4dd8…5972backed Yes	37c	38.8$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95c8…f511backed No	30c	37.69$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.46	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xece7…3673backed No	71c	36$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.62	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x195f…3442backed Yes	33c	32$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

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Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?this page
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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