Us Politics · resolved market

Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1a250742e22b4455ae93d4cc4075100b0ac41355fddfb1e3bb047ff0e0eaf36

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $143,599
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $119,743

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,599 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	15c	26,621$4,087 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,087.15	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes	17c	18,771$3,110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,110.11	355	19.7%70 W · 285 L	-16.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed No	73c	16,509$12,024 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,485.67	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+2.3wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+198.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	25c	11,239$2,836 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,835.83	184	25%46 W · 138 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	2c	8,149$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.64	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	6c	7,253$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.94	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	65c	6,054$3,919 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,134.89	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.15per pick	47cpaid	+35%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe0b…b5febacked No	72c	6,000$4,340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,660.48	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	6c	5,024$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.41	333	13.2%44 W · 289 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed No	69c	4,507$3,118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,388.78	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-15%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes	27c	3,500$948 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$947.68	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-4.5wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes	14c	1,464$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	+88.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	22c	1,050$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.98	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe3f2…d8b1backed Yes	2c	965.08$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	910.15$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.65	134	3.7%5 W · 129 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes	13c	835.9$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.18	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee57…b2b6backed No	74c	819.35$605 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.93	7	100%7 W · 0 L	+2.0wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+42%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes	26c	744.07$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.05	103	30.1%31 W · 72 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-40%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No	10c	742.76$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$669.77	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+7.5wins	+0.26per pick	40cpaid	+210.2%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes	32c	690.56$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.47	77	51.9%40 W · 37 L	+9.1wins	+0.12per pick	40cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No	73c	600$438 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-4.6wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	69c	476.67$331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.12	318	40.3%128 W · 190 L	-9.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-26%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes	79c	458.83$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.36	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	6c	450$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	110	10%11 W · 99 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-32%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae4…d4cebacked Yes	16c	441.47$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.3	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	23cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x520b…100abacked No	48c	382.31$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.69	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	29c	353$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.82	80	42.5%34 W · 46 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed No	79c	342.78$271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	76	5.3%4 W · 72 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes	63c	282$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.93	42	66.7%28 W · 14 L	+3.0wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf85f…9800backed Yes	14c	281.56$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.96	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.4wins	-0.27per pick	38cpaid	-76%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd27b…3966backed Yes	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd8a…f9bdbacked No	74c	250$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.92	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.13per pick	57cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	18c	236.74$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.3	94	3.2%3 W · 91 L	-8.3wins	-0.09per pick	12cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9eaf…52a2backed Yes	15c	231.53$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.53	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	25c	220$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.87	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe70…eefabacked No	67c	216.84$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.56	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0e…4838backed No	37c	200$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes	9c	186$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.74	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes	63c	172.83$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.35	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8415…dfe1backed Yes	17c	167$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.18	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes	31c	156.67$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.52	68	33.8%23 W · 45 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Yes	9c	151.72$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f27…d37ebacked Yes	34c	137.07$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.6	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf1…4c08backed No	75c	133.31$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.89	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	60cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	9c	130.91$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes	10c	108.64$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked No	70c	105.72$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.89	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fec…3572backed No	73c	100$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes	80c	90.94$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.75	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	-8.1wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7623…8390backed Yes	45c	90.66$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.14	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.7wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	20c	83.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.59	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	73c	83.33$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.1	567	33.2%188 W · 379 L	-40.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x74ef…1667backed Yes	27c	77$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.79	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecd1…2b46backed Yes	26c	76.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.89	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x698a…fe0dbacked Yes	66c	76.44$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.76	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.8wins	-0.29per pick	52cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	72c	67.9$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.59	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x640a…1ec3backed Yes	25c	57.21$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.27per pick	23cpaid	+137%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66e1…5aefbacked Yes	26c	57.05$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.72	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a8…c016backed No	73c	53.83$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.53	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	29c	52.35$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x192d…5d8cbacked Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes	26c	38.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.18per pick	54cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked No	65c	30.94$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.77	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc112…eb42backed No	75c	25$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.25	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+118.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x054e…22b6backed No	75c	23$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.75	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…649dbacked No	75c	22.45$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.61	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3615…5ef9backed No	75c	18$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+68.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?this page
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?No won
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event