TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,196,016
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,124,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,196,016 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 671 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c45,915$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.992920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca7…3303backed Yes47c34,605$16,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,264.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes15c31,562$4,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,886.954216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6430…d6e7backed Yes11c20,355$2,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,243.811414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-80.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked No25c20,030$4,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,061.828038.8%31 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a95…2d06backed Yes61c19,637$11,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,977.92580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes34c17,053$5,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,792.711936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-43.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2965…c74abacked Yes15c14,272$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,079.242416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-65%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x81fe…0f44backed No19c11,903$2,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,641.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48f8…7febbacked No19c10,800$2,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,7481100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c10,099$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.496291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes22c10,000$2,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,214.927540%30 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes6c10,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-70.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b9e…4a90backed Yes4c9,749$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7229…ccaebacked No53c9,600$5,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0310backed No53c9,005$4,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,232.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes16c8,561$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.767951.9%41 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb52f…3c2dbacked No70c8,506$5,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,573.953043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb649…7dbcbacked No53c8,400$4,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes9c7,762$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.1521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes28c7,758$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,194.827337%27 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc79…52bcbacked No53c7,600$4,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes35c7,177$2,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,478.6311723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c7,113$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9814421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8df…abd7backed Yes0c6,750$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5229.1%2 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick3cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes27c6,595$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753.4486.3%3 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes13c6,445$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.277611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes4c5,750$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No18c5,715$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,677.026216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea7…79acbacked Yes70c5,500$3,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,830425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No44c5,304$2,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,971.2815452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes2c5,205$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.894425%11 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x155e…056cbacked No18c5,173$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,258.58238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb659…48e5backed Yes1c4,944$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x073a…91e7backed Yes21c4,835$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes9c4,370$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.812033.3%40 W · 80 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x877a…7ca8backed Yes0c4,330$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes7c4,138$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.88474.3%2 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No54c4,089$2,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,881.6920148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes4c4,085$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.26837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c3,971$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.972522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes2c3,857$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.44591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b54…0b79backed No26c3,794$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,793.622100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+247.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2fa…4a62backed No54c3,753$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.91520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a47…d7f1backed Yes13c3,258$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.18425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-67.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes32c3,236$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.372965.5%19 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+39.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x258b…1032backed Yes71c3,102$2,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,208728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid+10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked Yes49c3,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,47010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee2…82e4backed Yes80c2,976$2,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,373.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c2,964$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.592560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes68c2,903$1,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.853438.2%13 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x029f…3668backed Yes3c2,765$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1424…1edebacked No22c2,616$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.27650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes7c2,561$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.276428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked No50c2,551$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.837238.9%28 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes1c2,500$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Yes14c2,500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.991030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes73c2,460$1,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.51421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick49cpaid-69.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x098e…cc4cbacked Yes39c2,400$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.95520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-38.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes3c2,400$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No64c2,310$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.534325.6%11 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb52f…bf2ebacked Yes14c2,284$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.88825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+115.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bc8…3627backed No22c2,279$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,779.192343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+90.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed Yes3c2,250$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.121540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes33c2,158$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.9818323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46ef…9686backed Yes47c2,139$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4a8…439fbacked Yes4c2,127$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ce…2b5cbacked Yes1c2,031$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Yes26c2,000$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.161838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4825…5ec5backed Yes56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1201330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes13c2,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2607238.9%28 W · 44 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes78c1,976$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.581369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.1wins0.00per pick69cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c1,971$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.62792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c1,875$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.213042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a7d…79dbbacked Yes2c1,852$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd2…4d78backed No77c1,819$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.58633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-52%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes70c1,657$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.9990%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes5c1,622$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.53432.4%11 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No20c1,590$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.38923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes8c1,569$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.891428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-58.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked Yes71c1,542$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes21c1,519$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.17633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd312…89cdbacked Yes1c1,509$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b62…b97cbacked Yes47c1,490$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4279…258fbacked Yes9c1,470$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19c1…a397backed Yes15c1,425$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8296…fecabacked Yes77c1,417$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.443151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4449…cae1backed Yes41c1,417$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.951346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b90…1d17backed Yes18c1,396$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.292040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd84b…74dcbacked Yes1c1,390$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes70c1,383$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.11822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa277…1182backed Yes3c1,366$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.472254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x59c7…4cccbacked Yes21c1,350$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.98475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+67.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x83a1…def9backed Yes76c1,350$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe005…14fdbacked No76c1,300$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3101752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+20.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No65c1,299$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.423627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x291b…47a2backed Yes2c1,277$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes59c1,261$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.92219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-82.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cf6…af1ebacked Yes16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.