TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,481,355
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,301,572

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,481,355 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c145,435$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.416291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c115,657$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.992920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2b6…3331backed Yes2c40,397$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.77728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-58.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae23…142ebacked Yes3c38,632$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.715822.4%13 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes2c35,899$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.114814.6%7 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c29,871$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c22,283$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.351491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c19,712$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.232522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes2c15,118$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.864216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…2cfbbacked Yes2c14,078$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.4180%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c12,587$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.59630%0 W · 63 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c12,283$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.062560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2965…c74abacked Yes2c11,943$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.472416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-65%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d80…2070backed Yes1c10,974$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d84…e174backed Yes2c9,711$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c9,556$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.133042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c9,408$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.842792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19c1…a397backed Yes2c9,268$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.26520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x00e1…b679backed Yes2c8,837$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.782725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes4c8,457$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.328220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes3c8,398$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.942412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x251e…81bfbacked Yes2c8,113$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.111216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+42.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6349…2a82backed Yes1c7,635$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.151030%3 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick16cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a52…6d47backed Yes2c7,300$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.7812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick2cpaid+220.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb84b…9c73backed Yes3c7,141$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x252a…3e34backed Yes2c7,069$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes3c6,066$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.98486.3%3 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67b1…9554backed Yes2c6,024$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes0c5,960$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.45120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c6…8019backed Yes2c5,917$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.351010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-85.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes0c5,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20254%1 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe55e…27e3backed Yes3c5,456$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-67.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0753…c6aabacked Yes2c5,192$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.34147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-64.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c5,161$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.43700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b71…cb46backed Yes2c5,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes1c4,786$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7724315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7815…5400backed Yes1c4,627$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c4,558$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes2c4,500$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736627.3%18 W · 48 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+112.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabd1…870ebacked Yes2c4,400$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1120%0 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c4,354$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.93486.3%3 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7587…81e2backed Yes3c4,330$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes1c4,282$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.58420%0 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c4,100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1811.2%1 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes2c4,000$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.56216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,907$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.791,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e49…0634backed Yes1c3,749$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb13…320fbacked Yes3c3,672$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c3,612$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.22731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Yes3c3,515$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8524…2af7backed Yes0c3,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79f3…d803backed Yes2c3,400$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.371172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4177…366bbacked Yes3c3,359$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.33128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-80%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9c…2aeebacked Yes3c3,318$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.311428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+83%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x560f…5af7backed Yes3c3,292$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.05742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+274.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c3,235$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.381754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aa3…a2c4backed Yes3c3,216$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d5…6f93backed Yes1c3,074$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.66016.7%10 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-67%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce0c…7048backed Yes3c2,985$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bb7…f680backed Yes2c2,971$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.32450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes2c2,955$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.037337%27 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes2c2,905$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.25220%0 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…050abacked Yes0c2,851$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c2,832$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.18790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5c…b693backed Yes2c2,800$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a6…b575backed Yes4c2,779$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes1c2,700$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4230%0 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0640…4c5cbacked Yes2c2,574$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.46110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c40…445cbacked Yes3c2,474$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.23026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes2c2,453$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.872817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+135.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4be…c827backed Yes2c2,416$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd6…5344backed Yes1c2,400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90e…c300backed Yes3c2,400$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d98…a976backed Yes2c2,376$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-64.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf114…e4efbacked Yes3c2,210$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-43.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfdc…444dbacked Yes3c2,209$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7227…80cebacked Yes2c2,200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c2,113$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.97865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes2c2,030$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2411723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45c3…a38dbacked Yes2c2,021$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.28911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-83.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed Yes2c2,012$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.466010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c77…05f5backed Yes3c2,000$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6270%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a75…5271backed Yes3c2,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c1,999$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.622977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes2c1,945$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.872110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes2c1,882$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.091323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a6…8651backed Yes1c1,783$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2190%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x115d…04fabacked Yes2c1,777$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5c2…7d11backed Yes3c1,758$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab0…9663backed Yes5c1,738$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-75.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…84eebacked Yes1c1,718$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes1c1,631$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.88250%0 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f5…2e79backed Yes4c1,587$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bbf…b0eebacked Yes3c1,554$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c1,521$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.25717%5 W · 66 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb53…edd1backed Yes1c1,500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid+37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7534…c561backed Yes1c1,479$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes3c1,370$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.85100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes2c1,285$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.39767.9%6 W · 70 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.