AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5ac806db33bcb9e580a534ecfc64e612ecfb67ce643b4fd196c33f90d4f6625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,261,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,121,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,261,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 87,376$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.59 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 3c | 60,957$1,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.92 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 60,367$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.27 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…ccd9backed Yes | 2c | 52,961$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.41 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 49,598$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 4c | 28,056$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.05 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 2c | 28,047$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8df…abd7backed Yes | 2c | 17,725$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.79 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 14,991$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.27 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…c74abacked Yes | 2c | 14,272$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.88 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 3c | 12,891$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.24 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 3c | 12,462$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.07 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 12,310$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.79 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5338…d457backed Yes | 2c | 12,074$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes | 6c | 11,414$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.45 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 10,694$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.56 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…569bbacked Yes | 3c | 10,629$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.22 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…5e07backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44bb…c186backed Yes | 2c | 8,830$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 8,199$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.39 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 4c | 8,052$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.73 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…5208backed Yes | 3c | 7,447$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 7,052$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.79 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…d6e7backed Yes | 3c | 6,785$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.07 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…056cbacked Yes | 5c | 6,641$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.79 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…8efdbacked Yes | 3c | 6,283$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…4c5cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,218$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f86…fea9backed Yes | 4c | 5,947$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,256$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 1c | 4,963$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…0e9bbacked Yes | 6c | 4,614$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…adafbacked Yes | 3c | 4,458$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.08 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b62…9ecdbacked Yes | 11c | 4,353$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 4,180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,877$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…d678backed Yes | 2c | 3,747$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,391$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.87 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 3c | 3,068$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2552…73d2backed Yes | 10c | 3,017$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.92 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e9…2951backed Yes | 7c | 3,014$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 2,892$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…3627backed Yes | 7c | 2,875$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 9c | 2,838$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.02 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 7c | 2,795$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.63 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 2,791$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.21 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 3c | 2,764$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 2,700$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.05 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,634$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.97 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…62c0backed Yes | 10c | 2,593$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173e…2d86backed Yes | 5c | 2,525$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,520$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a3…4af7backed Yes | 13c | 2,490$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +125.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a7…02febacked Yes | 5c | 2,451$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 5c | 2,396$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 10c | 2,339$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.36 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…424bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,338$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 8c | 2,314$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.05 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed Yes | 19c | 2,296$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 2,277$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,262$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba8…6326backed Yes | 9c | 2,251$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af3…39f8backed Yes | 1c | 2,151$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 2,148$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 73 | 1.4%1 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a51…006ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,129$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…c6aabacked Yes | 10c | 2,105$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.9 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x780b…3f34backed Yes | 7c | 2,032$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,030$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e62…9e70backed Yes | 2c | 1,871$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…1ef4backed Yes | 6c | 1,796$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 9cpaid | +260.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 2c | 1,790$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,777$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…e473backed Yes | 1c | 1,736$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…4b3bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,727$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2758…964fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,694$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 1,672$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…8deabacked Yes | 6c | 1,664$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,650$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,633$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,622$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 10c | 1,608$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.03 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 3c | 1,600$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 4c | 1,597$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…adb3backed Yes | 5c | 1,591$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c40…445cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,490$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc12…aa6ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,436$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…5170backed Yes | 1c | 1,429$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…ce7fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,402$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 1,400$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.03 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…5c9ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,396$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,349$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…8cf5backed Yes | 9c | 1,339$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…ba81backed Yes | 6c | 1,310$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a22…9f35backed Yes | 3c | 1,259$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 1,208$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 2c | 1,159$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2076…a338backed Yes | 3c | 1,154$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,119$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,115$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…4fb1backed Yes | 5c | 1,010$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.