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AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,653,187
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,360,863

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,653,187 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 352 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c112,003$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.652920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e9…88e5backed Yes0c64,999$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes3c52,306$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.944814.6%7 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c6…c9b8backed Yes1c27,409$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes3c22,479$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.553043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb659…48e5backed Yes0c21,685$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e06…710fbacked Yes7c20,930$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.75616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+86.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes7c17,333$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.873638.9%14 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c16,356$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.326311.3%8 W · 623 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0640…4c5cbacked Yes2c16,164$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.72110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2965…c74abacked Yes5c14,272$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.472416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-65%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c13,001$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.231501.3%2 W · 148 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7432…c16abacked Yes3c13,001$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44bb…c186backed Yes6c12,869$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.4860%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes7c12,830$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.386216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62ba…569bbacked Yes8c12,691$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.041711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-61.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c12,364$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.882522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c12,336$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.192570.8%2 W · 255 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad9f…09c1backed Yes5c11,598$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c10,694$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.477510.7%8 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c10,440$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.562590%0 W · 259 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes7c10,000$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes3c9,252$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.64714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00e1…b679backed Yes10c9,101$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.732725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x251e…81bfbacked Yes16c8,983$1,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,426.891216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+42.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbb…42d6backed Yes17c8,707$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.171711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid+154.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes5c8,613$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.55486.3%3 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c8,300$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5831.2%1 W · 82 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-82.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c7,700$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.52003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes7c7,671$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.737238.9%28 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c7,436$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.793042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8551…9b4abacked Yes7c7,413$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.88333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+297.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x517b…fe53backed Yes0c7,297$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.59120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c7,185$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.022792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2008…0877backed Yes11c6,655$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.37666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes9c6,610$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.762412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xece2…f453backed Yes21c6,567$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes5c6,532$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.114216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda01…e2fabacked Yes1c6,476$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6907…582fbacked Yes7c6,430$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes6c6,400$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc8…3627backed Yes18c6,256$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1002343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+90.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes12c6,189$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.047337%27 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebda…5208backed Yes3c6,138$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffef…d7dbbacked Yes9c6,056$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.612817.9%5 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+67.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ce…2b5cbacked Yes0c5,902$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x301f…8412backed Yes1c5,532$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c5,363$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.71591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b62…9ecdbacked Yes15c5,344$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c5,333$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514621.2%31 W · 115 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d74…ee45backed Yes7c5,266$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.531315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-60.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7769…7c39backed Yes3c5,032$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a51…006ebacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x155e…056cbacked Yes8c4,866$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.17238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0785…22f3backed Yes5c4,800$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.16837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+572.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x591f…710bbacked Yes1c4,716$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Yes8c4,158$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3531040%4 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+64%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes9c3,722$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.782977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes2c3,651$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.662015%3 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-51.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba8…6326backed Yes6c3,479$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0753…c6aabacked Yes4c3,438$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.82147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-64.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd190…3ee1backed Yes3c3,426$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa277…1182backed Yes0c3,398$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8117…639abacked Yes15c3,317$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2fa…4a62backed Yes7c3,309$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.411520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9741…9d74backed Yes3c3,260$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c3,052$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.321,3686.8%93 W · 1,275 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36ae…3567backed Yes11c3,000$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-78%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Yes7c3,000$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.631838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5849…a99ebacked Yes1c2,887$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.02100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c2,857$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.4340712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes7c2,805$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2486.3%3 W · 45 L+0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8df…3450backed Yes0c2,803$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes14c2,784$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.810338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c2,784$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.36700%0 W · 70 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40a7…91c9backed Yes4c2,751$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+578.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54f6…e8e6backed Yes10c2,720$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes12c2,719$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.697611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea21…3653backed Yes2c2,707$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.48540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes6c2,641$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7311723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd685…2505backed Yes4c2,629$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes12c2,624$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.0620130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5102…65f1backed Yes1c2,596$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4406…eabfbacked Yes8c2,577$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6430…d6e7backed Yes6c2,525$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.531414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-80.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b36…32adbacked Yes4c2,444$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc384…807ebacked Yes6c2,397$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x464a…4aa5backed Yes6c2,392$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a56…1893backed Yes8c2,358$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf59…0063backed Yes4c2,273$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc35e…d368backed Yes6c2,257$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6cc…e8d5backed Yes1c2,188$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c40…445cbacked Yes8c2,178$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.793026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0347…5d1ebacked Yes7c2,165$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.93120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x034e…7c37backed Yes7c2,126$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdb6…5985backed Yes2c2,102$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes8c2,079$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.225813.8%8 W · 50 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Yes14c2,000$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.761241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick22cpaid+310.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes4c2,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a0…b70abacked Yes2c1,989$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.