AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf76bd0b3d8326ba4dbe9a56236bf083ac6097c6e1c940739e056625229de0b22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,653,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,360,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,653,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 352 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 112,003$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.65 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…88e5backed Yes | 0c | 64,999$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 3c | 52,306$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.94 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…c9b8backed Yes | 1c | 27,409$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes | 3c | 22,479$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.55 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb659…48e5backed Yes | 0c | 21,685$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e06…710fbacked Yes | 7c | 20,930$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 7c | 17,333$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.87 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 16,356$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.32 | 631 | 1.3%8 W · 623 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…4c5cbacked Yes | 2c | 16,164$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.72 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…c74abacked Yes | 5c | 14,272$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.47 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 13,001$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.23 | 150 | 1.3%2 W · 148 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…c16abacked Yes | 3c | 13,001$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44bb…c186backed Yes | 6c | 12,869$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 7c | 12,830$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.38 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…569bbacked Yes | 8c | 12,691$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.04 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 12,364$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.88 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 12,336$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.19 | 257 | 0.8%2 W · 255 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9f…09c1backed Yes | 5c | 11,598$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 10,694$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 10,440$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 259 | 0%0 W · 259 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 7c | 10,000$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes | 3c | 9,252$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed Yes | 10c | 9,101$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.73 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…81bfbacked Yes | 16c | 8,983$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.89 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…42d6backed Yes | 17c | 8,707$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.17 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 5c | 8,613$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.55 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 8,300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 83 | 1.2%1 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 7,700$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 7c | 7,671$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.73 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 7,436$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.79 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8551…9b4abacked Yes | 7c | 7,413$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +297.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…fe53backed Yes | 0c | 7,297$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 7,185$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.02 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…0877backed Yes | 11c | 6,655$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes | 9c | 6,610$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.76 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece2…f453backed Yes | 21c | 6,567$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 5c | 6,532$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.11 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda01…e2fabacked Yes | 1c | 6,476$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6907…582fbacked Yes | 7c | 6,430$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 6c | 6,400$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…3627backed Yes | 18c | 6,256$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 12c | 6,189$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.04 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…5208backed Yes | 3c | 6,138$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked Yes | 9c | 6,056$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.61 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…2b5cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,902$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…8412backed Yes | 1c | 5,532$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,363$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b62…9ecdbacked Yes | 15c | 5,344$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 5,333$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 146 | 21.2%31 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 7c | 5,266$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.53 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7769…7c39backed Yes | 3c | 5,032$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a51…006ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…056cbacked Yes | 8c | 4,866$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.17 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…22f3backed Yes | 5c | 4,800$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +572.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591f…710bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,716$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Yes | 8c | 4,158$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 3,722$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.78 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 2c | 3,651$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba8…6326backed Yes | 6c | 3,479$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…c6aabacked Yes | 4c | 3,438$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.82 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…3ee1backed Yes | 3c | 3,426$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa277…1182backed Yes | 0c | 3,398$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8117…639abacked Yes | 15c | 3,317$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fa…4a62backed Yes | 7c | 3,309$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.41 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…9d74backed Yes | 3c | 3,260$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 3,052$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.32 | 1,368 | 6.8%93 W · 1,275 L | -20.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…3567backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.63 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…a99ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,887$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 2,857$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.43 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 7c | 2,805$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.2 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8df…3450backed Yes | 0c | 2,803$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 14c | 2,784$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.8 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 2,784$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…91c9backed Yes | 4c | 2,751$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +578.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f6…e8e6backed Yes | 10c | 2,720$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 12c | 2,719$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.69 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…3653backed Yes | 2c | 2,707$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 6c | 2,641$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.73 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…2505backed Yes | 4c | 2,629$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 12c | 2,624$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.06 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5102…65f1backed Yes | 1c | 2,596$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…eabfbacked Yes | 8c | 2,577$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…d6e7backed Yes | 6c | 2,525$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.53 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…32adbacked Yes | 4c | 2,444$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc384…807ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,397$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…4aa5backed Yes | 6c | 2,392$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a56…1893backed Yes | 8c | 2,358$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…0063backed Yes | 4c | 2,273$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…d368backed Yes | 6c | 2,257$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cc…e8d5backed Yes | 1c | 2,188$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c40…445cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,178$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.79 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…5d1ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,165$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.93 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…7c37backed Yes | 7c | 2,126$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb6…5985backed Yes | 2c | 2,102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,079$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.22 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +310.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…b70abacked Yes | 2c | 1,989$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.