AI · resolved market
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22940303dcf84c7f3a9b51389f6ebdc81c9bdb2e8c5dc1d86eeefd38f3040118
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,225,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $883,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,225,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 292,033$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.03 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf166…fb37backed Yes | 0c | 99,669$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 60,469$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.33 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a6…8651backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes | 1c | 18,707$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked Yes | 0c | 17,620$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 17,064$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dde…4756backed Yes | 0c | 16,932$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 1c | 15,046$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…5565backed Yes | 0c | 13,188$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,490$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…3ec3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 9,937$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a6…24d4backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3be…f3adbacked Yes | 0c | 6,267$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 0c | 5,601$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…569bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,287$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…90bcbacked Yes | 0c | 5,097$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c4…0a7dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d4…8461backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…96cabacked Yes | 0c | 4,769$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…2a82backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…c966backed Yes | 0c | 3,827$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 3,576$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 3,514$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,361$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 2,767$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ac…3633backed Yes | 0c | 2,729$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b1…9538backed Yes | 0c | 2,691$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,271$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 2c | 1,078$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb136…81f8backed Yes | 1c | 1,021$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 770$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…94d7backed Yes | 2c | 693$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 2c | 693$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9190…294dbacked Yes | 2c | 539$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.