TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,141,144
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,096,465

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,141,144 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c305,775$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.082920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf166…fb37backed Yes0c199,997$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200170%0 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc326…5df4backed Yes0c103,902$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.1930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c49,176$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.231491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee55…1babbacked Yes0c33,015$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da4…30efbacked Yes0c33,015$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb24…b4debacked Yes0c32,997$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7592…3cf8backed Yes0c32,997$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe44…d604backed Yes0c32,995$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a28…0575backed Yes0c32,995$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3687…49f5backed Yes0c32,994$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0753…2e63backed Yes0c32,994$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dc2…35adbacked Yes0c32,994$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d2…20dcbacked Yes0c32,994$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb388…d0a1backed Yes0c32,973$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1d3…bd4dbacked Yes0c32,958$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a94…ecdcbacked Yes0c32,958$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50f8…2175backed Yes0c32,957$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0c…299ebacked Yes0c32,956$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4284…f035backed Yes0c32,955$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b33…c174backed Yes0c32,954$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1189…1860backed Yes0c32,954$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x526e…36cbbacked Yes0c32,916$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x403e…4a9cbacked Yes0c32,916$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe536…b501backed Yes0c31,432$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18f5…c3fbbacked Yes0c31,389$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x533e…d305backed Yes0c31,365$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2cd…8019backed Yes0c31,341$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0ab…f0dfbacked Yes0c31,317$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2724…7490backed Yes0c31,293$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes0c31,236$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.982412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ef…0607backed Yes0c31,051$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4018…1bc8backed Yes0c31,015$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ea…bd60backed Yes0c30,995$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f6…3fe1backed Yes0c30,994$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ac6…d5b6backed Yes0c30,994$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc13e…d47dbacked Yes0c30,954$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e67…2279backed Yes0c30,947$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0351…430cbacked Yes0c30,915$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993b…4c68backed Yes0c30,871$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b4…9291backed Yes0c30,747$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ec…6483backed Yes0c30,745$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e4…1517backed Yes0c30,744$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ea…4f53backed Yes0c30,744$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe332…7b2abacked Yes0c30,722$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a5…c011backed Yes0c30,703$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3adc…5aeabacked Yes0c30,697$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5db…60eabacked Yes0c30,631$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30630%0 W · 63 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0440…4280backed Yes0c29,432$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f06…73c7backed Yes0c29,411$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2981…9e61backed Yes0c29,365$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x042c…6f51backed Yes0c29,341$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02de…6469backed Yes0c29,293$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2757…cb0abacked Yes0c29,067$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaae…fa80backed Yes0c25,387$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c0…fad2backed Yes0c24,517$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20270%0 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd675…153dbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes0c19,954$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.915813.8%8 W · 50 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes0c16,921$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.766291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7b…12e1backed Yes0c11,160$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes1c10,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.136216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc00…6685backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0753…c6aabacked Yes1c9,801$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-64.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c9,374$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.212560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes0c8,795$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5224315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0adc…c214backed Yes0c8,487$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes0c8,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae23…142ebacked Yes1c5,401$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505822.4%13 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2a…4e1fbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc23b…bc7bbacked Yes0c4,700$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe278…8d21backed Yes0c4,700$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79a…8f08backed Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick1cpaid+1,076.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c3,181$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.691754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes0c3,075$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.394814.6%7 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes0c2,707$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.182522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c2…c435backed Yes0c2,578$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d38…2078backed Yes2c2,052$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e72…2843backed Yes3c610.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5450%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes3c493.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.45200%0 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bfe…c677backed Yes5c254.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6860%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes10c239.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.65100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.