AI · resolved market
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadddfb35e1f27b963070256ee22301a5f14646a12932fc4335b26f1fe8934ae5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,424,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $881,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,424,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 270,187$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.85 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf166…fb37backed Yes | 0c | 199,909$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 32,692$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 29,999$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…5df4backed Yes | 0c | 26,730$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 26,631$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…fa80backed Yes | 0c | 25,387$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dde…4756backed Yes | 0c | 24,518$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 0c | 22,856$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a6…8651backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked Yes | 0c | 18,567$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0adc…c214backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes | 0c | 15,078$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…9d9cbacked Yes | 0c | 14,995$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,629$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…efc0backed Yes | 0c | 11,155$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab3…b750backed Yes | 0c | 11,050$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 0c | 9,990$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…54d5backed Yes | 0c | 6,793$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cae…fbcbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,924$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…643dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,924$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bf…d8ebbacked Yes | 0c | 5,924$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…3c9abacked Yes | 0c | 5,924$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 0c | 5,333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,761$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,717$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…2e67backed Yes | 0c | 4,389$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…cc2dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,389$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…fd52backed Yes | 0c | 4,389$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80fa…88aabacked Yes | 0c | 4,389$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd141…0cc5backed Yes | 0c | 4,389$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…2dadbacked Yes | 0c | 4,389$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…80cebacked Yes | 0c | 4,389$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…5070backed Yes | 0c | 3,901$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f05…ca7dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,844$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b30…1166backed Yes | 0c | 3,813$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6927…b255backed Yes | 0c | 3,393$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b43…d239backed Yes | 0c | 2,516$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,498$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.