TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,753,531
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,962,201

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,753,531 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 968 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba10…cf10backed No45c94,200$42,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,766.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a0…e9ebbacked Yes55c32,500$17,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,7551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes73c32,273$23,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,644.493043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cf8…1e65backed Yes55c32,100$17,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,573.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ea9…d706backed Yes55c29,600$16,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,438.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed No26c14,940$3,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,902.234216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a2…aab5backed No2c13,595$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No9c12,500$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.622560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79f3…d803backed Yes78c12,346$9,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,769.771172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes68c12,074$8,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,817.446737.3%25 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No32c11,534$3,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,735.224325.6%11 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes6c9,535$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,925.452412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes71c9,427$6,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,752.888754%47 W · 40 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd824…d626backed No14c9,050$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00e1…b679backed Yes58c9,038$5,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,764.952725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc0…25f8backed Yes78c8,819$6,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,918.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes49c8,362$4,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,275.977337%27 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0325…16e7backed No3c8,200$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.1425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b62…b97cbacked Yes61c8,136$4,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,161.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c0…6f73backed Yes72c7,661$5,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,175.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6430…d6e7backed No14c7,549$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.391414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-80.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No26c7,492$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.433627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44bb…c186backed No27c6,637$1,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.660%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c6,461$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.242522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No1c6,300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.16291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes66c6,253$4,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,105.6927536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No3c6,057$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.85591.7%1 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes75c5,995$4,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.332458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes69c5,705$3,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,761.3214339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x073a…91e7backed Yes63c5,600$3,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No20c5,430$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.591526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes76c5,231$3,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf51…faeebacked No1c5,175$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0170…a17cbacked Yes64c5,147$3,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,845.133100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0785…22f3backed Yes2c5,100$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,973.74837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+572.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes65c4,892$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,712.316536.9%24 W · 41 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+55.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe55e…27e3backed Yes77c4,878$3,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.43425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-67.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d45…1c76backed Yes60c4,782$2,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes36c4,744$1,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,024.658038.8%31 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No10c4,743$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.637611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a47…d7f1backed Yes76c4,634$3,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.93425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-67.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes71c4,624$3,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.0925837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes70c4,236$2,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.3512033.3%40 W · 80 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb3c…833ebacked Yes76c4,191$3,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.154100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb659…48e5backed No1c4,173$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46a5…4c03backed No1c3,925$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No1c3,727$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3914421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…9652backed Yes57c3,675$2,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.65966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes50c3,539$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.2111723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No48c3,536$1,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,711.9415452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes60c3,518$2,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.091464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c3,396$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,211.441,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No44c3,194$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.426312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe748…2b23backed No0c3,120$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…d248backed Yes65c3,058$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No19c3,038$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.64486.3%3 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed Yes76c3,016$2,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.536338.1%24 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes4c2,924$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,802.564814.6%7 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes40c2,903$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,746.347020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No16c2,864$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.140712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes64c2,780$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.858543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd061…a3ccbacked Yes71c2,737$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbfc…1798backed Yes1c2,725$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,692.111100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+8,225.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc314…3501backed No4c2,716$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No24c2,709$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.620148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed No19c2,700$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.287948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes70c2,676$1,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.6111346%52 W · 61 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-1.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes56c2,489$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.3118323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No4c2,455$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.192792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Yes5c2,437$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,319.021241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick22cpaid+310.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c2,396$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,350.831754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c2,279$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.413042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0d…e7a5backed Yes72c2,210$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.01837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c40…445cbacked Yes42c2,103$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.353026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x285c…3583backed Yes76c2,100$1,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No41c2,044$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.741855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…c50ebacked Yes65c2,000$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.01650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Yes77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4602846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed No4c1,914$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.066428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x443f…d4b1backed Yes5c1,844$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.68475%3 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.61per pick14cpaid+810.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f3e…12c6backed No1c1,780$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb83…0aa0backed No39c1,690$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745b…0b9abacked Yes40c1,651$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.67666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc3…cef6backed No6c1,632$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.33630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x624e…fce8backed Yes4c1,610$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.633100%3 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+1,177.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9787…d8f1backed Yes58c1,589$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.181668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes80c1,572$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.272835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0034…1767backed Yes5c1,559$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.031926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+183.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11a7…7f1ebacked No26c1,556$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes11c1,537$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.326829.4%20 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2aa0…3895backed Yes38c1,530$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.72977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.39per pick39cpaid+137.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf225…c01cbacked No4c1,503$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.63520%1 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick2cpaid+1,572.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16ef…92b6backed Yes60c1,500$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.25887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick54cpaid+55%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes15c1,492$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.176216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1d…8212backed No2c1,469$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes17c1,463$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.462110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4276…65ccbacked Yes36c1,445$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+180.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes70c1,431$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4313647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbb8…8b21backed Yes2c1,430$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,402.381225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+395.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x493a…fe77backed Yes7c1,424$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.55per pick12cpaid+852.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.