Middle East · resolved market
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3ebf217cf2f393a66030c072b04b893268506923e01b23f1bcf3504c3d319c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,006,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,300,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,006,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,339 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 4c | 193,479$8,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,639.95 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 29c | 159,591$46,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,463.15 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 3c | 125,036$3,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,905.09 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 4c | 95,668$3,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,773.33 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 34c | 81,686$27,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,272.21 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 5c | 75,797$3,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,714.58 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 6c | 63,078$3,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,693.59 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 6c | 59,803$3,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,477.81 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078b…7e2fbacked No | 1c | 49,729$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed No | 2c | 47,651$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.39 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 7c | 46,881$3,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,094.14 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 18c | 45,684$8,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,259.54 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed No | 7c | 42,701$2,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,838.3 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed No | 4c | 39,264$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.47 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed No | 7c | 38,492$2,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,777.3 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c9…56f6backed No | 4c | 35,611$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 7c | 35,153$2,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530.3 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0696…d2acbacked No | 1c | 33,509$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 12c | 32,900$3,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,933.8 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 5c | 32,872$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.9 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 3c | 32,781$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.48 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 8c | 29,870$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,382.76 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed No | 13c | 29,503$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed No | 4c | 29,175$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 12c | 26,290$3,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,131.5 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 9c | 26,277$2,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,457.33 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…04f5backed No | 8c | 26,244$2,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,225.49 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 4c | 25,965$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.3 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…c081backed No | 33c | 24,359$7,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,976.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 4c | 24,182$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.37 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed No | 5c | 23,513$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.48 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…43c1backed No | 27c | 23,099$6,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,340.15 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked No | 46c | 22,082$10,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,096.19 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 17c | 21,397$3,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,545.2 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a4…5214backed No | 8c | 20,029$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 3c | 19,524$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.28 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…e215backed Yes | 22c | 18,687$4,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,609.62 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +10.6wins | +0.62per pick | 26cpaid | +259.4%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 4c | 18,544$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.22 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 5c | 18,197$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.11 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…c521backed No | 25c | 18,136$4,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,623.51 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +269.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 20c | 18,121$3,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,478.27 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 4c | 17,363$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.17 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 13c | 17,164$2,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,257.97 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 14,950$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…4f6abacked No | 5c | 14,046$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 36c | 13,963$4,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,998.4 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 5c | 13,884$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…49edbacked Yes | 54c | 13,762$7,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,266.78 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed No | 3c | 13,738$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.88 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…6302backed No | 7c | 13,130$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…674dbacked No | 32c | 12,481$3,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,997.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 4c | 12,225$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.01 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0e…33afbacked No | 1c | 12,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 69c | 11,672$8,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,564.14 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1f…4c94backed No | 3c | 11,449$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 4c | 11,379$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.49 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c25…f046backed No | 1c | 11,230$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b5…a549backed No | 9c | 11,158$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 2c | 11,081$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.68 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…ad59backed No | 5c | 10,901$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.84 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 48c | 10,572$5,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,517.26 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No | 57c | 10,451$5,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,998.4 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b54…5e38backed No | 63c | 10,418$6,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,545.21 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -7.0wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…1ebcbacked No | 3c | 10,344$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6de8backed No | 10c | 10,276$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338c…1b33backed No | 4c | 10,181$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked No | 19c | 10,166$1,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,914.32 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 5c | 9,939$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.72 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked No | 12c | 9,810$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 6c | 9,713$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.83 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 79c | 9,345$7,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.63 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 13c | 9,332$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.28 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1942…96edbacked No | 28c | 9,312$2,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…a05ebacked No | 4c | 9,304$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 7c | 8,894$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.04 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…27fbbacked No | 14c | 8,779$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.89 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…c93cbacked Yes | 6c | 8,702$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,201.81 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +9.6wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 5c | 8,607$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.81 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes | 49c | 8,485$4,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,330.03 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8580…d817backed No | 8c | 8,470$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…b536backed No | 62c | 8,311$5,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,168.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed No | 9c | 7,973$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.64 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ee…397dbacked No | 4c | 7,919$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a75…5271backed No | 9c | 7,784$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff01…3bfebacked No | 0c | 7,700$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 6cpaid | +275.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed No | 6c | 7,666$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.05 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 67c | 7,500$4,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,505 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…e440backed No | 4c | 7,303$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.3 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 7c | 7,000$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…52cfbacked No | 65c | 6,995$4,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,557.56 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -10.4wins | -0.36per pick | 60cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5793…a3e5backed No | 5c | 6,774$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…923bbacked Yes | 10c | 6,742$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,064.57 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +7.2wins | +0.60per pick | 24cpaid | +398.6%equal weight | 72+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 60c | 6,631$3,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,953.17 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…dd82backed No | 10c | 6,487$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 5c | 6,443$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.06 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 53c | 6,246$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…7bf6backed No | 3c | 6,171$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.32 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 25c | 6,121$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.54 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a39…cbd5backed No | 5c | 6,057$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7728…50e9backed No | 5c | 6,054$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?this page
- Iran Strike on Israel by December 31?Yes won
- Iran Strike on Israel by January 15?No won
- Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?No won
- Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.