Middle East · resolved market
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c8e90be724ba76a69c5d4dbf543a8afca2218b546d310e94d448f077434d948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $251,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94ce…dd3dbacked No | 0c | 36,061$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 13,693$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 1c | 10,828$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 0c | 10,459$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 78c | 8,123$6,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.86 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5891…9ce0backed No | 6c | 7,259$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 7c | 3,971$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.35 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1942…96edbacked No | 6c | 3,566$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4260…5e65backed No | 2c | 3,400$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 9c | 3,158$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.44 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.55 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 5c | 2,704$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…0880backed Yes | 46c | 2,618$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 28c | 2,510$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.84 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f18…4099backed No | 4c | 2,452$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdea…34c0backed No | 47c | 2,119$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 65c | 1,859$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.14 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 10c | 1,775$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.56 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed No | 53c | 1,652$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.94 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc7…ac54backed No | 6c | 1,651$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 2c | 1,556$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked Yes | 48c | 1,529$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…9e93backed No | 20c | 1,507$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed No | 7c | 1,500$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…90f6backed No | 1c | 1,467$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 75c | 1,340$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…ad59backed No | 1c | 1,282$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 2c | 1,221$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…b536backed No | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 1c | 1,177$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d92…d298backed No | 12c | 1,150$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 4c | 1,118$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 73c | 1,105$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.65 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 3c | 1,102$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e73…a236backed No | 7c | 1,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 46c | 983$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.18 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 55c | 890$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 5c | 879.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 54c | 877$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.42 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 32c | 833$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.44 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 50c | 830$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…1ddabacked No | 2c | 826.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed No | 68c | 806$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 2c | 750$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed Yes | 56c | 658$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked No | 50c | 617$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed No | 6c | 600$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 22c | 553.64$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed No | 46c | 551$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 27c | 547$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.31 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked No | 48c | 530$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c1…2f84backed Yes | 52c | 523$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 5c | 519.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…eadcbacked No | 45c | 512$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 54c | 511.96$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.95 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 50c | 502$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…9517backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b73…f4afbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 38c | 499.97$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 2c | 470.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 46c | 467.74$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.11 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked No | 44c | 459$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.96 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked No | 4c | 450.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 3c | 449.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 78c | 446$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41df…4b70backed No | 37c | 443.84$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 54c | 427$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.42 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x779f…4451backed No | 51c | 423.23$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d1…b1b9backed Yes | 50c | 402.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.81 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 51c | 393$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.32 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked No | 50c | 373$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…bb13backed No | 8c | 369.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…bae4backed No | 6c | 359.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 48c | 358$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.84 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…1c15backed No | 50c | 342$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed Yes | 55c | 319$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.55 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467d…c2ffbacked No | 51c | 291.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.48 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 27c | 291$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a84…f8a5backed Yes | 29c | 290$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…ee62backed Yes | 48c | 275$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +152.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed No | 52c | 275$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed No | 44c | 272$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 48c | 261$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 9c | 250.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 8c | 244.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…684cbacked Yes | 57c | 233.94$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.31 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd29…5b60backed No | 6c | 224.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea0…9886backed Yes | 52c | 223.63$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed Yes | 55c | 193$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x356c…80b7backed Yes | 48c | 192.69$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.69 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.26per pick | 30cpaid | +162%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4564…4a11backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +5.9wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +396.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc170…98a0backed Yes | 64c | 180.6$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd20c…81b5backed Yes | 64c | 175.6$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 11c | 169.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 50c | 166.94$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…1b18backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 47c | 151.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…c113backed Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?this page
- Iran Strike on Israel by December 31?Yes won
- Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?Yes won
- Iran Strike on Israel by January 15?No won
- Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.