TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x01ad…90f6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
119
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: NHL, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 57 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT3534.3%12 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.52
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$547Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+140.3%+$767.58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,566Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+107.3%+$2,752.61
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+107.5%+$129.37
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$745Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$744.66
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$727Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$726.94
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+300%+$37.35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$117.26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+169.2%+$377.08
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.39
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.17
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$75.72
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$711Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$710.66
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+180.6%+$255.66
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.77
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.91
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,103Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,102.77
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$622Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$621.58
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$3,795.26
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.9
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.15
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT2665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
NHL — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Capitals vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$123
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wingsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$147
Flyers vs. Devilsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$159
Blackhawks vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.13
Canadiens vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.01
Sabres vs. Capitalsbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.88
Blues vs. Ducksbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$161.62
Flyers vs. Islandersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$174
Maple Leafs vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$135
Utah vs. Krakenbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$132
Sabres vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$144
Red Wings vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.54
Jets vs. Blackhawksbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$126
Senators vs. Panthersbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Devils vs. Rangersbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.82
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$135
Blackhawks vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$68.27
Predators vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$111
Canucks vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$120
Avalanche vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$114
Wild vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$129
Blackhawks vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$90
Oilers vs. Utahbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$165
Devils vs. Starsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+150%+$180
Avalanche vs. Penguinsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$117
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+145.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+66%+$30.23
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+126%+$142.57
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$73.96
Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.18
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+49.2%+$294.98
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.86
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.5
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+40.1%+$29.78
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.78
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.4
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$175.56
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+408.4%+$1,080.2
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+1,718.2%+$821.03
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$162.35
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.09
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$779Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$778.57
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$306.2
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$261Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+36%+$93.79
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.76
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+287.6%+$89.54
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$484Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+276.3%+$1,337.08
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.12
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.67
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$33.16
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+69.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,414Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,413.64
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.02
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.44
All 3 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,452Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+79%+$1,936.11
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+47.3%+$12.44
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.88
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.19
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+184.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+184.1%+$33.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,244Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$585.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.