TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,495,809
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,712,835

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,495,809 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6433…b427backed No2c187,405$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No1c139,999$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.522516%4 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked No1c130,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No2c102,320$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.663743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No1c95,839$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.8610947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No1c36,841$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.374141.5%17 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No2c36,010$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.976132.8%20 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dfe…0a5ebacked No3c28,770$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c28,600$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No3c24,367$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.0921033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked No2c22,300$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.372030%6 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f34…4128backed No1c16,111$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed No1c12,415$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed No1c10,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No3c9,901$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.9414729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No2c8,207$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.18051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6404…f250backed No2c8,024$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.41040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No1c6,201$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.273237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1680…490dbacked No1c5,875$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb03b…6ca1backed Yes80c5,675$4,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01ad…90f6backed No3c5,612$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.351225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed No1c5,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…5e12backed No1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed No2c5,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902646.2%12 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c1a…346bbacked No2c4,943$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cfd…95c4backed No1c4,545$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No1c4,156$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.753754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No3c4,144$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.699035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3950…e272backed No1c4,101$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed No3c4,000$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11680%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No2c3,953$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.668535.3%30 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No20c3,809$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.817534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked No1c3,735$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.78140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4afd…1241backed No1c3,333$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7d5…0789backed No2c3,327$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.971118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked Yes70c3,028$2,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.051844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3928…fc16backed No30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90060%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x808a…ef3fbacked No3c2,820$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.192254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+125.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes79c2,812$2,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.492147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No11c2,700$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2996322.2%14 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No1c2,639$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.643836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-15.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcb7e…28ddbacked No2c2,527$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.54425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-61.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No2c2,408$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.068638.4%33 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4e…1370backed Yes80c2,386$1,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f0…fc39backed No17c2,250$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c62…3bb8backed No1c2,054$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8160%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed No1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182231.8%7 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick14cpaid+183.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed No7c1,971$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.09616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+107.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No3c1,943$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5917140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a2d…bd89backed No2c1,898$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No2c1,777$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9410245.1%46 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60dc…9057backed No1c1,774$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No3c1,562$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3813143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea15…8738backed No1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No13c1,494$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.455133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No7c1,378$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.198149.4%40 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2932…3ae8backed No2c1,292$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38d6…e50fbacked No21c1,275$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.75742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55c5…1710backed No1c1,259$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No2c1,243$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.244841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0de5…d01cbacked Yes79c1,212$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No13c1,120$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.538234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No2c1,112$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.544949%24 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97b4…d794backed No2c1,069$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes80c1,046$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.3522848.7%111 W · 117 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58fe…a8c5backed No21c1,037$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No3c1,034$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.195139.2%20 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a2…560ebacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc399…6c4fbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No2c961.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.715135.3%18 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No2c917.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.714942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c01…797dbacked No10c908.88$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x605c…83dcbacked Yes80c899$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50bc…78c2backed No15c860$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12960%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8507…7f61backed No20c839$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf26d…d349backed No4c802.24$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2955…0738backed No2c800.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.474136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9774…6d3cbacked No20c799$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab0…f8c9backed No2c792.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122725.9%7 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick13cpaid+22.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No18c785.31$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.75128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-71.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No4c776.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.884940.8%20 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd2b…ebedbacked No20c754$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No3c731.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.246036.7%22 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x724d…8deabacked No10c709.26$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d6…358fbacked Yes79c695$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No8c692.4$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.54816.2%5 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick7cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No13c677.74$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.821155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No4c666.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.686336.5%23 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No2c660.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.214940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No2c650.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.055255.8%29 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No11c634.39$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.351020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-70.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5322…95e1backed Yes80c634$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafea…230bbacked No20c607$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+61.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes78c603.97$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.858133.3%27 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x769d…05bfbacked No21c597.26$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.65100%0 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No6c581.28$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.441042.9%3 W · 101 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked No14c559.21$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.112626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b02…cfc1backed No21c555$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed No20c555$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-68.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.