TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,419,767
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,154,078

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,419,767 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes0c259,002$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.3520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes0c70,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.942512%3 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes0c50,822$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.824141.5%17 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c46,215$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.94551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes0c41,107$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.774835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes0c33,864$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.862630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-44.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes1c29,553$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.1510740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c15,224$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.07303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes4c11,966$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.049343%40 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes0c10,055$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes1c8,907$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2721033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc39…8ad8backed Yes0c7,955$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes0c7,953$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53bf…15b2backed Yes6c7,469$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes0c6,755$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5160%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa32c…c8c5backed Yes2c6,100$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c5,607$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.04260%0 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06fa…d8ddbacked Yes8c5,540$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87d3…6ff6backed Yes1c5,476$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1682…26cabacked Yes1c5,340$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.312030%6 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcae3…3af0backed Yes7c4,521$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e8…097bbacked Yes5c4,515$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes1c4,341$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.197534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf3a…3736backed Yes1c4,223$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed55…a194backed Yes4c4,143$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f1a…e58bbacked Yes7c3,805$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea9a…1359backed Yes7c3,432$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9790…52d0backed Yes8c3,319$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dfe…0a5ebacked Yes1c3,044$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x448c…bcdebacked Yes3c3,030$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dac…6cf5backed Yes7c2,969$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfccd…8b43backed Yes9c2,836$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x503c…c904backed Yes9c2,728$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a6…3d07backed Yes5c2,604$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7506…22f6backed Yes3c2,583$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f7…2906backed Yes7c2,564$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes1c2,552$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6222948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…9311backed Yes9c2,431$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,390$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2449511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffac…8738backed Yes7c2,354$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b06…a3fdbacked Yes3c2,349$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda7…dfd8backed Yes9c2,327$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee59…0e8bbacked Yes1c2,300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3a0…3e41backed Yes9c2,297$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b3…eef4backed Yes9c2,275$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c0f…e13abacked Yes9c2,274$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda80…fdb4backed Yes5c2,256$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed Yes1c2,170$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.02616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+107.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5169…0f20backed Yes9c2,159$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf132…1dc7backed Yes3c2,110$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb14…b6b2backed Yes9c2,092$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bf…9101backed Yes5c2,082$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x86ce…6fc6backed Yes5c2,082$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3aac…5365backed Yes5c1,999$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a44…2560backed Yes5c1,996$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c80…a181backed Yes9c1,984$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x762a…a42ebacked Yes5c1,972$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdddb…14c2backed Yes7c1,964$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd35c…30a4backed Yes3c1,958$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee5b…1864backed Yes5c1,938$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87f5…704cbacked Yes3c1,926$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3233…ef73backed Yes4c1,917$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0d1…9f3fbacked Yes8c1,906$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa42d…d5a2backed Yes9c1,887$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x440e…3975backed Yes9c1,867$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c78…c20cbacked Yes5c1,863$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0342…3e9dbacked Yes3c1,858$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Yes1c1,839$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.61020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-70.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0624…4487backed Yes3c1,823$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8e…dd59backed Yes6c1,814$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes1c1,800$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.74330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5186…0abebacked Yes9c1,788$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0222…628bbacked Yes3c1,784$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12de…0ab2backed Yes5c1,746$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x433d…8cc9backed Yes5c1,739$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bca…70d5backed Yes1c1,703$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb9…8fdcbacked Yes5c1,698$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…d7cabacked Yes7c1,603$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2158…70e9backed Yes5c1,599$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf09e…94b0backed Yes2c1,579$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb074…40a8backed Yes5c1,578$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f9e…0730backed Yes3c1,564$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4b…eef9backed Yes9c1,563$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf546…6db8backed Yes4c1,551$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…c578backed Yes7c1,550$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e8…3e28backed Yes5c1,540$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99fc…b572backed Yes5c1,508$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba7…47a0backed Yes9c1,480$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x983e…8f98backed Yes5c1,469$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96fe…79d5backed Yes5c1,441$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x974a…391dbacked Yes5c1,433$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca73…0ae2backed Yes3c1,423$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89d3…aad1backed Yes9c1,371$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0913…a5d6backed Yes3c1,362$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7379…3e5dbacked Yes5c1,356$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc1e…b78bbacked Yes1c1,336$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb838…1f76backed Yes5c1,335$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a5f…1360backed Yes5c1,330$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ce…672cbacked Yes3c1,324$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.