TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,462,255
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,117,381

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,462,255 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 457 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x12e8…1f6ebacked Yes1c1,002,911$11,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,011.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6433…b427backed Yes0c882,421$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes1c473,225$4,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,527.48520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes1c320,000$3,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,175.622516%4 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c5f…b5bbbacked Yes1c276,542$2,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x381b…4d74backed Yes1c200,000$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd24…22f3backed Yes2c181,157$3,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,526.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes1c114,084$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.122420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87d3…6ff6backed Yes4c106,197$4,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,611.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515e…8309backed Yes1c86,419$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes5c84,467$3,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,877.9380%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b97…5e12backed Yes1c74,652$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf006…bb6cbacked Yes2c55,976$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ef…90e2backed Yes2c52,808$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ab…1f24backed Yes2c51,614$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5a1…35edbacked Yes1c51,004$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b58…81b7backed Yes1c50,067$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe62b…3ab1backed Yes1c45,277$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes4c43,867$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.713915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf06b…4c6dbacked Yes3c41,026$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes2c40,317$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.7421033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes1c40,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa32c…c8c5backed Yes2c36,357$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43be…aac4backed Yes1c33,806$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5038…9f65backed Yes1c31,963$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1b3…3182backed Yes1c28,360$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e3b…5d31backed Yes11c28,305$3,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,146.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes1c27,777$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.444835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes2c27,542$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.922832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9d4…e363backed Yes1c26,712$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fc9…828abacked Yes1c25,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfcd…c0f2backed Yes3c24,999$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa22e…d045backed Yes1c24,340$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c4c…34bcbacked Yes1c23,750$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbc…5196backed Yes1c22,653$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.761010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-76.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x579d…1c04backed Yes4c22,466$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3950…e272backed Yes1c21,683$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc43a…d493backed Yes2c21,273$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7820…5723backed Yes1c20,267$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22c2…8f8bbacked Yes10c20,025$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7a6…8117backed Yes4c19,414$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60dc…9057backed Yes1c18,900$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250d…2a94backed Yes1c18,403$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe505…ce50backed Yes1c17,940$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes1c17,333$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.824141.5%17 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f34…4128backed Yes0c17,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fdc…1348backed Yes9c16,601$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes1c15,864$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.192646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf26d…d349backed Yes3c15,077$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb570…811fbacked Yes1c15,050$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes1c14,560$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.633237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes1c14,500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7e5…01a6backed Yes1c14,451$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b77…27cdbacked Yes7c14,142$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3908…fe4fbacked Yes1c13,393$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1548…fb10backed Yes13c13,213$1,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,701.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x629e…5706backed Yes4c13,026$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98af…3a0dbacked Yes1c12,782$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9036…c291backed Yes9c12,606$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0d…7ef1backed Yes1c12,590$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes0c12,500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5260%0 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3289…18bbbacked Yes1c12,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a4…ea52backed Yes2c12,272$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c1a…346bbacked Yes2c11,915$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ca…3163backed Yes1c11,766$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f40…67a7backed Yes1c11,687$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa919…65fabacked Yes1c11,123$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fc6…cf7bbacked Yes1c10,645$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf6…0bcfbacked Yes1c10,522$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c10,419$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.95551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeae4…ad95backed Yes0c10,234$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x053e…1e27backed Yes11c10,039$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes2c10,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702646.2%12 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c36…207dbacked Yes12c9,967$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-73.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e4f…a5a7backed Yes1c9,666$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes1c9,519$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9360%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb5…4df8backed Yes9c9,260$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86a5…a858backed Yes1c9,254$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6404…f250backed Yes2c8,835$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.361040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes1c8,474$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.02137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick31cpaid-88.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe23d…8051backed Yes1c8,376$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c8,170$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.7849411.5%57 W · 437 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd01f…74abbacked Yes1c8,047$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd50f…7c82backed Yes1c7,897$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2932…3ae8backed Yes1c7,728$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes2c7,662$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.098638.4%33 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x063a…27b9backed Yes3c7,600$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9124…578dbacked Yes1c7,334$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c2…9701backed Yes3c7,274$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a8b…0601backed Yes1c7,171$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5c…a16dbacked Yes3c6,905$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb113…0ffebacked Yes1c6,826$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdc4…57f2backed Yes1c6,781$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd3f…804dbacked Yes1c6,667$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b21…87d8backed Yes1c6,555$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc15a…373cbacked Yes1c6,421$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf4…e0f3backed Yes2c6,314$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9836…d761backed Yes24c6,281$1,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16cc…6ca3backed Yes1c6,207$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.