World Politics · resolved market
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d54121fe274ad6c4809b032f464009fd98ccee5a47bf810d6d54e63387d0c33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $212,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7b3…2b3abacked No | 64c | 80,367$51,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,560.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 35c | 61,111$21,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,360.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked No | 49c | 9,161$4,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,626.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes | 45c | 9,000$4,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,080 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 8,950$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 89 | 2.2%2 W · 87 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 54c | 7,000$3,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,770.53 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 50c | 6,458$3,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,201.62 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 67c | 5,878$3,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,929.1 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…6621backed Yes | 42c | 5,834$2,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,473.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 67c | 5,532$3,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,845.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…bd09backed Yes | 50c | 5,000$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 44c | 4,740$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,103.94 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked Yes | 39c | 4,589$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 30c | 3,924$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.32 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 3,848$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.12 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 49c | 3,846$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.51 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…7f76backed Yes | 42c | 3,650$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…be21backed Yes | 31c | 3,537$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.47 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 3,488$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,745.45 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 41c | 2,838$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.65 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 39c | 2,510$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.09 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 53c | 2,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 44c | 1,700$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.24 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 1,700$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.6 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 46c | 1,693$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.22 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +8.3wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 41c | 1,645$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.82 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 57c | 1,615$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.49 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 52c | 1,576$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.94 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 30c | 1,500$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.69 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 1,494$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.42 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…69b3backed Yes | 35c | 1,318$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa189…a2d5backed Yes | 49c | 1,307$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.11 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…e8f6backed Yes | 50c | 1,255$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +922.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 1,235$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.12 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…f250backed Yes | 51c | 1,200$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,173$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 57c | 1,163$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.12 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 1,095$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.01 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 836$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.88 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 66c | 820$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.18 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 48c | 800$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.8 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 778$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.88 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…9d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 716.59$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd449…450fbacked Yes | 36c | 707.42$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 69c | 670$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.7 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked Yes | 51c | 649.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.73 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 639.73$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.57 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 29c | 631$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.4 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 52c | 628.73$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 608.43$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.65 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1727…680ebacked No | 52c | 589.35$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 39c | 587.54$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.12 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…2e51backed No | 53c | 585.14$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 572.3$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.95 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed No | 64c | 563.95$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.43 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 51c | 556.25$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.18 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 55c | 533.72$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.59 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 2c | 526.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 69c | 514$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.37 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 33c | 510$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.41 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed Yes | 32c | 506.06$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.94 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 31c | 500.45$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.74 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed Yes | 42c | 500$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2956…d31bbacked Yes | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 489.78$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.83 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8469…dab0backed Yes | 34c | 476.44$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +197%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 47c | 474$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.35 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 51c | 456.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.33 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 419.55$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.61 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 409.68$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.32 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 35c | 400$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.03 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1694…8badbacked Yes | 26c | 390.35$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…f187backed Yes | 31c | 381.12$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe86…4a1ebacked Yes | 38c | 375$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…76a7backed No | 55c | 371.85$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…4c88backed Yes | 34c | 350$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +269.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 58c | 344.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…55a1backed Yes | 43c | 344.17$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.53 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 51c | 341.33$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.69 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 328.92$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 48c | 315$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.41 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…bd0fbacked No | 51c | 311.59$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…5057backed Yes | 49c | 309.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 50c | 300$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb466…4953backed Yes | 58c | 300$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d32…0457backed Yes | 39c | 280$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +526.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 34c | 265.91$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 67c | 260.85$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…90f6backed No | 44c | 255.72$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 49c | 255.39$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 32c | 250$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed No | 68c | 249.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 53c | 246.58$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?this page
- Will Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Yes won
- Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win less than 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.