World Politics · resolved market
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5ce4e0cf17801d89f245025eeb2e4dda5f39a94bca8d5a4c36436f779a0ea16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $593,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $551,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $593,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 11c | 110,174$11,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98,534.42 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 4c | 103,872$4,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99,492.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked Yes | 4c | 58,191$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,751.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…6621backed Yes | 8c | 49,082$3,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,229 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fee…ed5ebacked Yes | 43c | 46,834$19,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,836.87 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 31c | 14,102$4,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,789.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 38c | 13,700$5,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,447.7 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +8.3wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 32c | 13,318$4,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,058.72 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked No | 54c | 9,000$4,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,830 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 72c | 7,500$5,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,399.46 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…bd09backed Yes | 14c | 7,496$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,460.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 16c | 7,346$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,199.87 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 16c | 7,000$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,904.99 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 16c | 6,690$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,650.02 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes | 23c | 6,354$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,877.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 41c | 6,114$2,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,501.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…e8f6backed Yes | 4c | 6,000$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,763.52 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +922.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 5,892$3,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,071.93 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 4c | 5,049$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,842.74 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 11c | 4,100$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,660.31 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 4c | 4,000$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,830 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,949$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,834.57 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 30c | 3,846$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,676.66 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 41c | 3,447$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.39 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 35c | 3,123$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.81 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 57c | 2,901$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 2,675$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.36 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…be21backed Yes | 28c | 2,628$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,881.83 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…69b3backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,374.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 12c | 2,303$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,028.3 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.04 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 34c | 1,787$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.48 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…3c1fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,453$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 1,395$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.83 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 73c | 1,359$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.33 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 1,235$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.39 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 54c | 1,132$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.1 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 68c | 1,099$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 1,062$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.05 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 4c | 1,045$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 45c | 1,027$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.81 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 43c | 1,003$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.54 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…b21ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +1,273.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8469…dab0backed Yes | 22c | 994.71$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +197%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 981.12$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.59 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 22c | 979.05$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.64 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 63c | 919.25$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.14 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1308…45c6backed No | 39c | 912.66$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 6c | 888.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.39 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 74c | 872.78$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.66 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…f5f7backed Yes | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 57c | 796.83$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.15 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 18c | 752.68$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.69 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 735.58$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.58 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 46c | 724.56$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.32 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 710$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.57 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 32c | 696.81$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 18c | 667.54$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.83 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked Yes | 13c | 666.42$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.95 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed Yes | 18c | 587$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.4 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 553.21$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.41 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 548$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.95 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 75c | 545.59$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.66 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 38c | 533.91$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.14 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 73c | 533.72$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.04 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked Yes | 38c | 533.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…4c88backed Yes | 5c | 530$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +269.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825c…dfa0backed Yes | 4c | 518.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 517.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.17 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…084dbacked Yes | 5c | 500$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +757.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 17c | 500$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 38c | 499.96$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.98 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…2634backed Yes | 38c | 484.27$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 24c | 481.97$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.14 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b9…5db9backed Yes | 47c | 476.71$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x111c…573abacked Yes | 26c | 472.11$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…76a7backed No | 68c | 448.76$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 48c | 445.93$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.62 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.31per pick | 45cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a27…b772backed No | 54c | 432.91$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 74c | 416$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.65 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x284b…f1ddbacked Yes | 15c | 411.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 75c | 403.22$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.22 | 100 | 38%38 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 28c | 400$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.88 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdb…c4eebacked No | 62c | 390.09$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 63c | 378.71$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce3…cfd7backed Yes | 19c | 356.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +430.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…3897backed Yes | 43c | 340.07$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 335$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.15 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 34c | 332.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.77 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 332.39$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.34 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 31c | 332.15$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.54 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa189…a2d5backed Yes | 31c | 330$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…5057backed Yes | 18c | 316.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 71c | 306$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.38 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.1 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…55a1backed No | 64c | 299.44$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…5a2fbacked Yes | 59c | 298$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b8…0368backed Yes | 17c | 294.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +194.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?this page
- Will Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win less than 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.