World Politics · resolved market
Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1c22e2437ec3df1824c62b3f7e7c714c403d703c08c4500881ffe910c5a18d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,367$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +168.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…6621backed Yes | 1c | 10,091$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc19e…d881backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 7,296$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 3c | 6,939$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.92 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b58…fe64backed Yes | 12c | 5,754$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked Yes | 2c | 4,950$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 1c | 4,639$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 2c | 4,180$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…f0fbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,337$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…e8f6backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +922.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,903$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 9c | 1,609$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.26 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…69b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,067$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.98 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Yes | 4c | 966.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked Yes | 6c | 799.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825c…dfa0backed Yes | 5c | 731.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 9c | 669.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8469…dab0backed Yes | 13c | 494.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +197%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 480.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 3c | 421.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…361ebacked Yes | 13c | 381.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 15c | 344.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…90f6backed Yes | 6c | 269.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 7c | 265$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 6c | 171.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 15c | 166.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4257…009bbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 12c | 127.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…30eabacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Yes | 13c | 105.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…6d39backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?this page
- Will Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Yes won
- Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
- Will Nigel Farage win less than 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.